WHY HAVE KERALITES STOPPED COMING TO GULF COUNTRIES?

Study seeks to find out why the exodus has slowed down, writes Ramola Talwar Badam

The largest study into the movement of Keralites to the Middle East for jobs has begun after a decline in migration numbers. Normally, the study is conducted every four or five years, but a similar exercise was undertaken in 2016 to find out why the influx to the Middle East was slackening.

The survey two years ago was the first to record a drop in the number of Keralite migrants – from 2.4 million in 2014 to 2.24 million in 2016.

Nicknamed “Gulfies”, people from the south Indian state of Kerala sharea rich history with the UAE. Migration began even before the discovery of oil.

Since then, many have improved the lives of their families back home, with money earned in the Middle East pumped into bigger houses and better education for children.

The percentage of Keralite migrants who chose to come to the UAE rose from 38.7 per cent in 2011 to 41.5 per cent in 2016.

As many as 25,000 households will be surveyed for the Kerala Migration Study, which will include an eight-page questionnaire on subjects including education, health and home finances.

Field work began last week and runs until March.

Preliminary findings, expected by the end of April, aim to explain migration patterns to the Gulf states, said S Irudaya Rajan, professor at the Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala’s capital city.

The centre has been conducting this study for 20 years.

The eighth cycle will also address the experiences of female migrants, women whose husbands have worked overseas for more than 20 years, and the problems fresh job-seekers face.

On average, one out of five households in Kerala have migrants, Prof Rajan said.

“We want to know if there are new households where this is picking up or if it is the same families from the same areas going out.”

The findings are expected to show if the slump in oil prices and introduction of VAT in parts of the GCC has had an impact on migration.

For Farhan Ahmad, working in the Gulf is still the best option. “My son wants to be a doctor. I could not have dreamt of this without working here for 30 years,” said Mr Ahmad, a taxi driver. His brother and two cousins from Kerala also work in the UAE.

“It will take time to see if people save less because of VAT and if that makes fewer people come here. There are taxes at home but living costs are cheaper.”

The survey done in 2008 reflected the effect of the global financial crisis, which left workers unpaid when building companies closed down in Saudi Arabia.

In most instances, Indian government officials worked with the authorities to resolve the cases and repatriate workers.

“We want to map trends to see if there is a further decline or it has picked up,” Prof Rajan

said. “Some people believe 2016 was a short-term trend that will correct itself.

“The is another dimension for the Gulf because of low oil prices, the crisis over Qatar and new taxes.”

Other experts pinned the 2016 decline on educated migrants considering other regions instead.

“In Kerala, an ageing population, higher level of development, higher wages and an increase in education levels have all contributed the decline,” said Cedwyn Fernandes, director of Middlesex University Dubai.

“These changes have also contributed to a shift in unskilled to skilled migration, particularly among highly educated women, as well as

the opportunity for some to use the Gulf as a launch pad for onwards migration to the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.

Most of the money earned by Keralites is sent home.

Previous studies have revealed that remittances provided one third of the state’s income.

While living standards have improved, the survey will also look at loans taken by workers, families deep in debt and the social consequences of families living apart.

Previous surveys estimate that one million women in Kerala live without their husbands, two million children are brought up without one or both parents and four

million elderly people live alone.

“We cannot shy away from how important migration is to the Kerala economy,” Prof Rajan said. “It has changed the landscape economically and socially because it has created

People say remittances bring down poverty, but we should also look ... at the hearts and minds of the migrants S IRUDAYA RAJAN Researcher

wealth and a new type of people whose children can study in better schools and colleges.

“But we should talk about the negative, because although money is important, it is not everything. Some have been cheated through migration, some have died.

“Separation plays a big part in their lives. When people who leave their wife and children are not paid salaries, imagine the psychological problems they suffer.

“This is not just for migrants from Kerala. This story can be replayed for migrants from Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines. People say remittances bring down poverty, but we should also look beyond the numbers at the hearts and minds of the migrants.”