Lebanon is gearing up to prosper from the reconstruction of Syria
Chinese are already jostling for position but big question is who will pay the bill for rebuilding
Even before the guns fall silent, Lebanese businesses are looking at a potential gold rush in Syria, a country badly in need of rebuilding after nearly seven years of war.
“Lebanese contractors are preparing themselves,” said Maroun Helou, the general manager of Abnieh Engineering and Contracting.
“The president of the Syrian contractors’ syndicate is planning to come to Lebanon to discuss this. A lot of Lebanese companies are restoring their offices in Damascus.”
Mr Helou said his company, which is responsible for several high-profile projects around Lebanon, has already been contacted by private companies in Syria and was preparing a bid for a commercial tower in the city of Tartous.
The Syrian government has not yet begun to open bidding on public infrastructure projects but there is hope that Lebanon’s economy, which has suffered from the war in Syria, would also be a beneficiary of any reconstruction boom.
“A lot of our banks already have a presence in Syria and our banking system is already well developed,” said Raya El Hassan, who served as Lebanon’s finance minister from 2009 to 2011, and is now the head of the special economic zone in the northern city of Tripoli.
In a best-case scenario for Tripoli, which has suffered from decades of economic stagnation, its proximity to the Syrian border and its port would make it a logistics centre for international contractors taking on work in Syria.
Construction of a rail line that would link Tripoli to Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, is also under consideration.
Lebanese and Syrian contractors told The National that Chinese companies have also been seeking contracts in Syria.
One Lebanese contractor who was recently in Homs to discuss possible work said the number of Chinese officials staying at one hotel made him feel like he was in Beijing.
“We’re receiving a lot of interest from Chinese delegations, both public and private, who are eyeing Tripoli, and I think they have in mind how they can use Tripoli as a hub to service Syrian reconstruction,” Ms El Hassan said.
But there are many unanswered questions. When rebuilding does begin, which could be in months rather than years, politics will inevitably play a role.
Officially, Lebanon’s government has yet to normalise its relationship with Syria and the international donor community is also at loggerheads over what countries will fund much of the work.
“There is a lot of talk but we need to know who will finance the reconstruction of Syria,” Mr Helou said. “That’s the real issue.”
US and European sanctions against the Syrian government mean it is likely that countries supporting Syrian president Bashar Al Assad in his fight against the rebels will be the main beneficiaries of public reconstruction contracts.
Representatives of EU nations and the US have said any financial contributions to reconstruction should be contingent on Mr Al Assad reaching a political deal with the rebels. In the case of the US, the deal must include Mr Al Assad leaving office.
“I think the companies interested in Syria are Russian, Iranian and Chinese,” Mr Helou said.
But he said he envisioned Lebanese companies having a large role as subcontractors.
The prime minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, the son of a construction magnate whose company helped to build the presidential palace in which Mr Al Assad lives, agrees that reconstruction donations should be used to put pressure on Mr Al Assad to accept a political solution to the war.
“We should start building the infrastructure in Lebanon, so companies that would like to go to Syria and do the reconstruction there can use the Lebanese expertise after the conflict ends,” Mr Hariri said in Beirut late last year.
“I believe that the EU position is the right position and will put pressure on the regime and on all countries to find a political solution.”
That position could make it difficult for Lebanese companies to work as primary contractors on Syrian government tenders.
“The prime minister is not willing to talk about normalisation of relations at this point, but that does not mean that the Lebanese private sector won’t have a problem exporting products and services to Syria,” Ms El Hassan said.
“We will not optimise our role if the political situation stays as it is. But I don’t see the hurdle being addressed.”
Mr Helou said Lebanese businesses would have to wait and see whether a new Lebanese government would remove the obstacle.
“Nothing will be treated seriously before September 2018, because you have elections in May and then you have to form your government,” he said. But he remains optimistic: “There is a feeling of hope in Lebanon at all levels that 2018 will be better than 2017.”
Other businessmen seem to agree with him.
“We have been receiving some prospects, perhaps a franchise inside Syria,” said Yassin Yassin, a businessman based about 20 kilometres away from the Syrian border in the city of Tanayel, in eastern Lebanon.
Mr Yassin’s current project is Homescape, a warehouse-style shop that will stock building and home improvement materials. He describes it as “similar to Home Depot in US”.
Eastern Lebanon’s economy has in particular suffered from the Syrian war. The closure of Syria’s border with Jordan has meant farmers and manufacturers in eastern Lebanon have been forced to ship their goods to customers by sea rather than overland.
“It costs five times as much,” Mr Yassin said.
He has plans to open a franchise of his new shop in Jordan – a task that would be considerably easier if it were possible to pass through Syria.
I think the companies interested in Syria are Russian, Iranian and Chinese MAROUN HELOU General manager of Abnieh Engineering and Contracting