The environment and WMDs top World Economic Forum’s list of global worries
The World Economic Forum says environmental concerns and fear of weapons of mass destruction are the greatest threats to humanity as the planet becomes a more dangerous place.
Its Global Risks Perception Survey, which questioned almost 1,000 experts to identify the biggest concerns facing the human race, found that risks appeared to be growing, not dissipating.
Respondents’ concerns over events with significant negative effects on several countries were elevated, it said.
“Many of the risks are systemic in nature,” said Margareta Drzeniek Hanouz, the forum’s head of economic progress.
“The results are very striking. Respondents see 2018 as a year when risk is increasing.”
In all, 59 per cent of the respondents viewed the trajectory of risks this year as rising, compared with 7 per cent who perceived declining risks.
One of the main factors was held to be a deteriorating geopolitical landscape.
The survey showed that 93 per cent of respondents anticipated that frictions between the major powers over politics or economics are expected to worsen.
Almost as high was the figure on the prospect of war between those powers, with nearly 80 per cent expecting an increase in risks associated with conflict.
For a second year running, the environment was a great source of concern among experts, with extreme weather and the consequences of failure to tackle climate change ranking high in the risk tables.
Other risks identified were major natural disasters, manmade disasters and eco-system collapse.
“Extreme weather events were ranked again as a top global risk by likelihood and impact,” said Alison Martin, group chief risk officer at Zurich Insurance Group.
“Environmental risks, together with a growing vulnerability to other risks, are now seriously threatening the foundation of most of our commons.”
we currently observe a “too-little-too-late” response by governments and organisations to key trends such as climate change. It’s not yet too late to shape a more resilient tomorrow, but we need to act with a stronger sense of urgency in order to avoid potential system collapse.”
Last year’s Global Risks Report came out at a time of immense global uncertainty. The elite was rocked by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump.
While there not been much evidence of the “fundamental reforms to market capitalism” or indeed a rebuilding of “solidarity within and between countries”, there is some respite to report, perhaps temporarily, one year on.
The Davos Forum will have a visit from Mr Trump next week.
It will be a reminder of the gains since his election and the underlying impulses that he champions.
“A global economic recovery is under way, offering new opportunities for progress that should not be squandered: the urgency of facing up to systemic challenges has, if anything, intensified amid proliferating indications of uncertainty, instability and fragility,” the report says. Looking into the future, the WEF identifies 10 potential system or society-wide breakdowns, ranging from democratic collapses to spiralling cyber conflicts.
A positive outlook for the global economy is offset by the urgent need for resilience against cyber attacks.
“Geopolitical friction is contributing to a surge in the scale and sophistication of cyber attacks. At the same time, cyber exposure is growing as firms are becoming more dependent on technology,” said John Drzik, the president of global risk and digital at Marsh, another partner in the report.
“While cyber risk management is improving, business and government need to invest far more in resilience efforts if we are to prevent the same bulging ‘protection’ gap between economic and insured losses that we see for natural catastrophes.” Another section of the report looks at digital wildfires, a phenomenon that was mooted in 2013 and now bears a “close resemblance to what is known as fake news”.
Finally, authors are asked to look at sharing their insights about the implications of extreme developments for decision-makers in businesses, governments and civil society.
“Increasingly rich data resources give us better tools to anticipate problems and to track our progress in dealing with them. But decision-makers need to work hard to help to ensure that all of this information leads to effective action,” writes Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognise and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.