ITALY’S FAR RIGHT RIPE FOR GAINS IN ELECTION
▶ Bitter anti-migrant campaigns likely to lead to a hung parliament
Italians voted yesterday after a bitter campaign dominated by anti-migrant speech and frustration with a listless economy.
Polls published before a blackout imposed two weeks ago showed a hung parliament as the most likely outcome, although far-right and populist parties are expected to make major gains.
Voting stations were to remain open until 2am UAE time, when the first exit polls were to be released. Consolidated results are expected today.
There were long lines at poll stations from Milan in the north to Palermo in Sicily, where several opened later after several thousand ballots had to be reprinted because of errors.
A hung parliament would trigger a long period of back-room haggling among the parties as they seek to come up with a coalition government that can win confidence votes in Parliament.
Which parties link up from among the three main blocs – the centre-right coalition, centre-left coalition and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement – will determine Italy’s course.
Most pollsters predict the Five Star Movement, led by 31-yearold Luigi Di Maio, will be the largest vote-getter among any single party. But it is unlikely to win enough votes to rule on its own and has repeatedly rejected the idea of striking deals with other parties.
Mr Di Maio has recently suggested that he would be open to talks but most analysts do not think he would agree to take part in a governing coalition.
“Doing so would mean a major loss of credibility in the eyes of the movement’s voters, and we believe that most established parties would be reluctant to conclude an alliance with M5S,” Peter Ceretti, Italy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told The National.
Instead, four-time premier Silvio Berlusconi, 81, could become the kingmaker after the election. His Forza Italia party is polling about 18 per cent but it has joined with other centre-right parties in a coalition that is predicted to win about 37 per cent of votes.
The billionaire is barred from becoming prime minister again after a tax fraud conviction but he has tapped European Parliament President Antonio Tajani, considered a pro-European moderate, as his pick if the centre-right is asked to form a government.
Matteo Salvini, the leader of the anti-migrant League, part of Mr Berlusconi’s coalition, also wants the leadership and some pro-European analysts envision a “nightmare scenario” of an extremist alliance among 5-Star, the League and the Brothers of Italy, which has neo-fascist roots.
The presence in Rome this weekend of Steve Bannon, right-wing populist architect of Donald Trump’s White House campaign, was an indication of the stakes.
Another possibility is that Forza Italia and the centre-left Democratic Party, led by former prime minister Matteo Renzi, build a “grand coalition” after the election in order to shut the 5-Star Movement out of power.
It is a prospect that would reassure investors but risks spreading more cynicism and emboldening populists and the far right.
With unemployment at 10.8 per cent and economic growth in the eurozone’s third-largest economy lagging behind the average, many Italians have all but given up hope for change. Polls indicated a third had not decided or were not even sure they would vote.
The Five Star Movement, set up in 2009 by stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo, hoped to capitalise on such disgust, particularly among young Italians.
Immigration has been the other dominant theme. The campaign was marked by the prime-time airing of neo-fascist speech and anti-migrant violence that culminated in a shooting spree last month against six Africans.
Mr Berlusconi and Mr Salvini have promised to expel 600,000 illegal migrants if they win power – a proposal dismissed by the centre-left as logistically impossible.