Attrition and desertion … the end looms large for Al Qaeda
Al Qaeda’s entrenched presence in Yemen is showing signs of crumbling under sustained attacks by Yemeni forces supported by the Saudi-led coalition.
Government forces increased their counter-terrorism efforts against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or Aqap, as part of efforts to stabilise the country.
Last month, a military operation succeeded in expelling Aqap from key outposts in Hadramawt province, which shares a 600-kilometre border with Saudi Arabia. The group was driven out of the main city in the province, Mukalla, in a UAE-backed operation in 2016.
The campaign has forced the extremist group to divert resources from its main focus of fighting the Iran-backed Houthi rebels to attacking government forces and there are indications that its membership is falling and its leadership on the run.
Aqap claimed 273 operations last year. Of those carried out in the first six months 75 per cent were against Houthis, whereas 51 per cent of the attacks in the second half were against Yemeni forces, a study shows.
“This switch in targeting reflects the increasing challenge Aqap is facing from UAE-supported forces, which are heavily focused on counter-terrorism,” said Prof Elisabeth Kendal, senior research fellow at the University of Oxford, who conducted the study.
Aqap took advantage of the security vacuum created after civil war broke out in 2015 to expand its reach in southern Yemen. At the same time, ISIL took root in the country.
Now, under pressure from the sustained counter-terror campaign, Aqap’s internal mechanisms appear to be failing.
“The group released a video warning of a threat of loose communications over the internet,” Prof Kendall said.
Another sign is the release of video messages from its leader, Qasim Al Raymi, that were clearly recorded months earlier. But more importantly, there are signs that Aqap’s numbers are dwindling.
“Aqap is definitely hurting. We’ve seen a steady stream of martyr photos appear on their supporters’ wires since the end of last year especially,” Prof Kendall said.
Many fighters have also dropped out of its ranks.
“When Aqap was ousted from Mukalla, many core fighters and sympathisers returned to ordinary life. Contacts of mine reported a lot of beard shaving. This has continued as fighters have peeled away with the increasing presence of UAE-supported forces and the absence of material benefits from Aqap now that it has lost its state,” Prof Kendall said.
The drop in Aqap’s presence could also be attributed to the loose relationship the group has to Yemen’s tribal east. At times, its sophisticated weaponry and militant nature have been sought out to resolve the tribal conflicts common in the region and in Bayda province.
But ultimately, “the Bayda tribes and Aqap have conflicting objectives in Yemen’s war”, said Nadwa Al Dosari, a Yemeni researcher.