Two presidents make their moves in the Syrian conflict

▶ Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron’s statements suggest the war is changing

The Syrian conflict appears to stall and then speed to new phases. Last week marked the fall of Eastern Ghouta into Bashar Al Assad’s hands. The previously rebel-held enclave had given way following a month-long campaign of atrocity. The fall was deeply symbolic for those who subscribe to the regime’s narrative. It was a sign, they said, of the changing course of the conflict. For almost everyone else it was another bloody reminder of the depths the regime was willing to sink to and of the breakdown of leadership within parts of the international community. Ghouta’s fall, far from marking a turning point, further emphasised the quagmire the conflict had sunk into.

Within the past few days, two developments have, however, signalled the onset of a new phase of the war. First, Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw 2,000 US troops from Syria “very soon” and to “freeze” US funding for recovery efforts in Syria. While White House observers have become used to the apparent policy by impulse nature of the Trump administration, taken together the initiatives point to a marker being laid down. Mr Trump said as much, calling for “the other people” to take care of it now, while continuing a dialogue with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Separately, French president Emmanuel Macron pledged to mediate in northern Syria as he sought to rebalance the area following Turkey’s military campaign against the Kurdish YPG. Mr Macron’s argument for dialogue is to curb ISIL’s ability to regroup and correct Turkish actions. Predictably, Ankara has rejected such overtures, stating its view that the French president had overstepped the mark. Kurdish officials suggested at the weekend that Mr Macron will send troops to Manbij, a claim that has since been denied. Taken together, the Trump administration’s pronouncements and Mr Macron’s policy initiatives are carrots and sticks being applied to Turkey. For months Ankara has acted with impunity in Syria, saying one thing and doing another. That moment might now be over.