Orban almost certain of fourth term as Hungary votes
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of Europe’s most controversial leaders, looks set to win a fourth term today, despite uncertainty over tactical voting and turnout that could cause an upset.
At a final campaign event on Friday in the city of Szekesfehervar, south-west of Budapest, Mr Orban urged his supporters to turn out to vote.
“It’s not enough to be ahead in the polls, we have to come first on voting day too,” he said, recalling his party’s loss in a 2002 election despite having been considered the favourite.
The nationalist leader’s Fidesz party leads opinion poll by between 20 and 30 percentage points over its closest rival Jobbik, a far-right party led by Gabor Vona, which has been moving towards the centre, and the Socialists with their candidate, Gergely Karacsony.
The first results are expected within hours of the polls closing today at 8pm UAE time, with broader trends emerging slowly through the evening.
“Rational logic suggests Fidesz will win but there is something in the air that points toward a surprise,” analyst Gabor Torok said.
A mainly first-past-the-post election system designed by Fidesz after it came to power gives it an advantage over the fragmented opposition.
But in a recent mayoral by-election the party suffered a shock defeat after the opposition united behind a single independent candidate, sparking a surge in turnout.
Analysts say nationwide turnout of more than 70 per cent would put Fidesz’s majority in danger.
Since the by-election, groups have urged nationwide tactical voting today to foil Fidesz in electoral districts, although the opposition parties have failed to present a united front.
Despite being on course for overall victory, analysts say Fidesz is likely to fall short of a third consecutive two thirds “supermajority” in the 199-seat assembly that has allowed it to railroad through controversial bills.
Although the economy has
A strong majority would cement Mr Orban’s plan to mould the formerly communist country into an ‘illiberal’ state
picked up in recent years and wages are rising steadily, Mr Orban’s campaign has focused on warnings about mass immigration by Muslims and Africans.
Fears are entrenched in Hungary after about 400,000 refugees and migrants passed through the EU member in 2015, prompting Mr Orban to build a border fence that is popular with voters.
Casting himself as a defender of national sovereignty and “Christian Europe” against the “globalist elite”, Mr Orban has led divisions between the EU’s western nations and eastern members such as Hungary and Poland.
The leader of Poland’s governing PiS party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, endorsed Mr Orban during a visit to Budapest on Friday.
“Today the freedom, sovereignty and dignity of nations, for you and for us Poles, is tied to Viktor Orban,” Mr Kaczynski said.
Mr Orban’s anti-immigration stance and criticism of “meddling Brussels bureaucrats” have gained him admirers in nearby Poland and among ultra-nationalists in western Europe and beyond.
But Brussels has sued Budapest over its resistance to the bloc’s refugee resettlement plan, and laws targeting civil groups and a university linked to the liberal US billionaire, George Soros.
The “nuclear” step of launching sanctions over Hungary’s claimed breaches of EU values, a penalty so far applied only to Poland, has been raised and could lead to the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights in the European parliament.
But a strong majority today would cement Mr Orban’s plan, declared in 2014, to mould the formerly communist country of 9.8 million people into an “illiberal” state modelled on countries such as Russia and Turkey.
During a bruising election campaign Mr Orban, 54, has stepped up his long-running attacks on the Hungarian-born Mr Soros, 87, which have included media blitzes called xenophobic and anti-Semitic by critics.
Fidesz posters show the slogan “For us, Hungary is first,” and the Jewish financier standing with opposition leaders, brandishing wire-cutters to take down the border fences.
Mr Orban has shunned debate with rivals and questions from the independent media, and appeared in public only at carefully choreographed events.
But his aura of invincibility has been shaken by corruption scandals involving close allies and family members, which have intensified in recent weeks and heightened unpredictability about today’s result.