HAMILTON CAN WIN IF THERE IS NO DRAMA IN CHINA
▶ Season’s first two races prove Mercedes-GP are quick, but if they do not have a perfect weekend they are beatable, writes Graham Caygill
Being 17 points adrift after two rounds of the Formula One season is unlikely to faze Lewis Hamilton too much. He was 25 down on Sebastian Vettel after six races of the 2017 campaign, took the outright lead of the championship for the first time only in September and still won his fourth title with two races to spare.
Having said that, Hamilton will not want Ferrari and Vettel’s confidence to grow any further with another win in China this weekend.
Vettel has won the opening two races, despite Ferrari arguably not being the quickest overall package, and he goes to Shanghai on a high as he looks to achieve the 50th victory of his career.
Barring a retirement from the race for Vettel it is unlikely that Hamilton will be arriving in Azerbaijan at the end of the month for the fourth round of the season at the top of the standings.
That will not be the immediate goal for Hamilton this weekend. Just getting back to winning ways will be the fundamental objective.
Including the final three races of 2017, Hamilton is on a winless run of five races. It is not a crisis. At least not yet, as events conspired to deny him in the first two races.
A Virtual Safety Car (VSC) period wrecked Hamilton’s victory chances in the season opener in Australia where he had to settle for second, while a five-place grid penalty for a gearbox change in Bahrain left him with too much to do from ninth place and third was a satisfactory result from there.
Shanghai has been a happy hunting ground for Hamilton in the past, and he needs it to be again on Sunday.
Hamilton is the most successful driver in the race’s history, with five wins, three of which have come in the past four years.
Last year he and Mercedes struggled in the opening races as Vettel and Ferrari, on race pace, had the edge on them. China was the only one of the opening four races that Hamilton won and it helped give him belief during a time when Vettel threatened to take control of the championship.
Historically, making a slow start to the season, in terms of race wins, makes it very hard for a driver to go on and become world champion.
Only twice in the past 28 years, in 2012 (Vettel) and 2003 (Michael Schumacher) has a driver not won any of the opening three races of the season and still gone on to finish the year at the top of the standings.
However, there is no need yet for Hamilton supporters to panic. The Mercedes is still an extremely quick package and could, and maybe should, have won both of the opening two races.
Hamilton was quicker than the Ferraris in Australia until the VSC bumped Vettel ahead of him.
Ferrari were faster in qualifying than Mercedes, but the German marque were kinder to their tyres in the race and were able to apply pressure on Vettel.
Hamilton’s teammate Valtteri Bottas hounded Vettel in the closing laps in Sakhir, but was unable to get past the German.
Hamilton was only six seconds behind when Vettel crossed the finish line, and he could rightly wonder what he might have been able to do had he not lost time in the opening laps while making up ground from ninth place on the grid.
The outcomes of those races cannot be unchanged but it does highlight one possible weakness for Mercedes: if they do not have a perfect weekend they are beatable. They are quick, but not fast enough to overcome an errant VSC period or a grid penalty.
What Hamilton desperately needs in Shanghai is a normal weekend. No dramas, just a simple set of practice sessions, a good qualifying session and
Shanghai has been a happy hunting ground for Hamilton in the past, and he needs it to be again on Sunday
then a straightforward race.
If he gets that then there is every chance he will be back on the top step of the podium on Sunday afternoon and have checked Vettel’s momentum.
But if he suffers more drama then things will get tougher for him. History at least, says the path to a fifth world title may just be that little bit harder.