MILITARY FORCE BUILDING AS TRUMP TWEETS ON SYRIA STRIKES
▶ US president sends mixed messages, but formidable firepower is assembling to take on the Assad regime
In the latest twist from the presidential Twitter feed, Donald Trump said on Thursday that a strike on Syria may not happen at all.
“Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all,” the president declared.
Be that as it may, a formidable show of force is assembling to target Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s regime, focused on the eastern Mediterranean. The build-up of not only US, but also French, British and, possibly, hardware from the region, is rolling out, raising questions about how extensive the attack plan will become.
Leading US strategic expert Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies believes the United States and its allies must orchestrate an offensive beyond the immediate reference point of the Douma attack.
That means degrading the regime’s offensive capabilities nationwide.
“Far too much of the outside speculation on possible US and allied strikes against Syria misses the point,” he wrote. “First, no one should confuse ‘proportionate’ response to the limited effect of one poison-gas attack. ‘Proportionate’ should be in response to the overall nature of enemy behaviour and its effect, not a single incident. The US should respond to the overall pattern of Assad’s state terrorism and use of force to kill, injure and damage the lives of millions of civilians.
“Second, there is no reason that the response should be limited to Assad airfields. It is interesting that no one has yet suggested targeting the areas occupied by the extended Assad family and his closest supporters, the presidential palace in Damascus, or the Assad’s elite internal security and guard forces.
“Assad is the real issue here, along with Russian and Iranian complicity. Hitting airbases or tactical facilities will always be an expendable loss to him (and them).” Washington already has the
USS Donald Cook and USS Porter, Arleigh Burke-class Navy destroyers. in the Mediterranean. The USS Harry S Truman carrier strike group has left the east coast of the US and is expected to enter the theatre within days. The Donald Cook is equipped with 90 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and The Aquitaine, a French naval frigate also in the region, has 32 cruiseclass missiles. At least one Ohio-class submarine with 158 cruise missiles is also in the area. The British can offer the firepower of an Austute-class submarine, which has been already ordered to approach Syria. These carry 38 Tomahawk IVs cruise missiles.
Add to that strike potential of B2 stealth bombers, F-22 Raptors based in the region and Britain’s Tornado bombers based in Cyprus.
The most obvious potential target is Dumayr military airport north-east of Damascus, from where regime aircraft used in Saturday’s attack are thought to have been launched. Russia controls two airbases on the Syrian coast, Tartus and Khmeimim, protected by S-300 and S-400 air missile defence systems.
The Russian defence systems have a fearsome reputation and shot down an Israeli F-16 over Syrian airspace in February. But the systems are less effective against low-flying smart missiles.
There is fierce debate among experts about the long-term value of a missile bombardment. Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute said that any other option would involve an intensive campaign to suppress the air defences, which runs the risk of targeting Russian personnel and Kremlin retaliation.
“While cruise missiles allow the US and, to a lesser extent, France and the UK to attack regime targets in Syria without risking the safety of aircrew and without having to directly suppress the Syrian and Russian air defence network, there are serious limitations to what can be achieved beyond symbolic retaliation,” he said.
“The US Navy launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles [last April] from destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, targeting Shayrat airbase, its aircraft, ammunition supply bunkers, air defence systems and radar systems.
“The [Shayrat] strike largely depleted the magazines of three US Navy warships in the Mediterranean and even the US does not have endless supplies of such weapons available in theatre at short notice.”
US television station NBC News reported Russia could now use GPS jammers to limit the capabilities of US drones and other surveillance assets operating over Syria, hampering the allies abilities to carry out strikes.
“The US has to be very careful not to accidentally strike Russian targets or kill Russian advisers,” said Ben Connable, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation.
“That significantly limits the number of options available to the United States, because the Russians are embedded in many cases with the Syrians.”
Michael Pregent, a fellow of the Hudson Institute, said delays had already enabled Damascus to move its weaponry out of harms way.
“Assad has moved his aircraft to Russian airbases, a strike at this point is a meaningless face-saving gesture and a win for Iran, Russia, and Assad,” he said.
The US has to be very careful not to accidentally strike Russian targets or kill Russian advisers BEN CONNABLE Political scientist, Rand Corporation