EU UNDER PRESSURE TO SALVAGE THE IRAN AGREEMENT
European ministers meet Iranian officials next week to convince the regime to keep faith in the nuclear deal
Foreign ministers from three European powers face a tough challenge when Mohammad Javid Zarif, their Iranian counterpart, arrives next week for discussions on shoring up the 2015 nuclear deal after America’s withdrawal.
It is how to balance the need to maintain Iranian faith in the deal while also reflecting dismay at the overnight outbreak of direct clashes between Iranian forces and Israel in Syria.
Officials and analysts in London concede there is no easy path for the Europeans as governments reinforce the deal.
Boris Johnson, the British Foreign Secretary, is one of those who will meet Mr Zarif. In a statement on Thursday, he condemned Iranian aggression at the flashpoint Syrian border.
“The United Kingdom condemns in the strongest terms the Iranian rocket attacks against Israeli forces. We strongly support Israel’s right to defend itself,” he said. “We urge Iran to refrain from further actions, which will only lead to increased instability in the region. It is crucial to avoid any further escalations, which would be in no one’s interest.
“We also continue to call on Russia to use its influence to press those in Syria to cease their destabilising activity and work towards a broader political settlement.”
There is no telling if that language will be reflected at the table when Mr Johnson sits down with Mr Zarif, Jean-Yves Le Drian of France, Heiko Maas of Germany and Federica Mogherini, representing the EU.
British officials believe the urgent focus of the talks must be on the nuclear agreement. Getting Iran to agree to suspend uranium enrichment and other aspects of their work towards a nuclear bomb was the product of 13 years of diplomacy. The Europeans are reluctant to follow Mr Trump’s lead.
To hold on to Iran, the officials will offer measures to continue business contacts with Tehran, either by getting waivers from the US government to exempt the oil trade – and banking – or ring-fencing their companies from the reach of US penalties. One British official said the work behind the scenes was dominated by thinking on how to keep the partnership going.
Mahmood Sariolghalam, a professor of international relations at Shahid Beheshti University, the national university of Iran, told a briefing in London that the US decision brought into a long-standing goal of Iranian foreign policy into play: dividing European policymakers from their US counterparts.
Iran could then concentrate on its top foreign policy priority: the containment of the US and Israel in the Middle East. Thus the US decision perpetuates the influence and prejudices of the “gerontocracy” at the top in Iran that sets the country’s agenda beyond its borders, he said.
“Trump has handed a unique opportunity to hardline political elites to build on Iranian frustration. Not only can the hardliners use the breakdown of the deal to establish unity among the divided elites but they can also build bridges with the Iranian population after protests in January,” said Chatham House analyst Sanam Vakil, a Middle East specialist.
“In the weeks ahead, Tehran will seek to pressure the EU in particular to defend the deal. If that defence does not materialise, Iran will gradually restart its nuclear programme. The wider consequence here is that other regional actors such as Saudi Arabia will make similar moves accelerating the issue of regional nuclear proliferation.”
Previous rifts between the US and Europe, such as the divide over sanctions on Cuba, had relatively limited repercussions. Many experts doubt that the Europeans can take the right steps to save the deal.
“A co-ordinated sanctions agenda between the US and Europe will generate additional pressure against target states. However, when such alignment is lacking, it will be difficult to achieve this policy aim,” wrote Emil Dall, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.