Iraq elections: muted hope ahead of first poll since ISIS defeat
Early voting began on Thursday for Iraq’s security forces and diaspora as the country prepares for its first parliamentary elections since the defeat of ISIS.
The main election will be the fourth vote since the 2003 US invasion toppled former dictator Saddam Hussein.
Iraqis are hoping that after 15 bloody years, their ballots can bring peace.
Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi is running for re-election after taking office in September 2014, after much of the Iraqi military collapsed in the face of an ISIS offensive in which a third of the country fell into the hands of the extremists.
The premier is seeking a new term as he takes credit for the victory over ISIS and for blocking Iraqi Kurdistan’s controversial bid for independence last September.
The elections occur amid a mood of renewed optimism in Iraq, although they are unlikely to lead to fundamental changes. “There is definitely a sense that the country is embarking on a new chapter: post-sectarian, post-war, on an increasingly civilian footing and finally at peace with its neighbours,” Fanar Haddad, an Iraq expert and senior research fellow at the University of Singapore, told The National.
Mr Al Abadi is facing two leading Shiite challengers to his Victory Alliance, which is pitched as an attempt to bridge Iraq’s Shiite-Sunni divide.
Former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki, a bitter foe despite coming from the same Dawa party, is widely reviled for stirring sectarianism and losing territory to ISIS, but draws support from a hardline base.
Former transport minister Hadi Al Ameri, who has close ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, is hailed by many as a war hero after leading paramilitary units that fought ISIS alongside the military.
That competition from within the majority Shiite community, alongside the multitude of smaller electoral blocs, makes it unlikely Mr Abadi will win an outright majority.
Despite the renewed optimism in Iraq, many Iraqis are weary of the same old faces appearing on the ballot and cynical of the prospects for change. “I don’t believe that my vote will make any difference,” said 34-year-old NGO worker Mahmood Zaki. “I know that it is fake, so why bother?”
To counter widespread perceptions of fraud, a new vote-counting mechanism has been introduced. “This should combat election rigging,” said Ghassan Attia, the head of the Civil Democratic Alliance electoral coalition.
Even so, unsophisticated voters may be easily swayed, he said. “Over 40 per cent of Iraqis are illiterate and nearly 37 per cent are under the poverty line, with hunger and ignorance you can easily
manipulate and influence people by giving them false promises.”
Whoever emerges as premier will face the mammoth task of rebuilding a country left shattered by the battle against ISIS and the parallel challenge of restructuring Baghdad’s fragile relationship with the Kurds.
The Kurds make up about 15 per cent of Iraq’s population and retain secessionist ambitions, despite last year’s thwarted independence vote. Kurdish political parties remain in disarray, but will probably win enough seats to be important coalition partners to whoever forms a government.
Thus the elections present an opportunity to renew a constructive relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Baghdad, said Christine van den Toorn, director of the Institute of Regional and International Studies at the American University of Iraq Sulaimani. “If the right leaders are in power or gain power, then you can have a stronger more well governed Kurdistan under a stronger more well governed Iraq,” Ms van de Toorn told The National.
Despite the fighting against ISIS ending nearly a year ago, more than two-and-a-half million people remain displaced, and ISIS sleeper cells still pose a security threat that could affect Saturday’s vote.
The majority of displaced come from Iraq’s Sunni Arab population, leaving many feeling entirely disenfranchised. Many are unaware of the procedure for voting in displacement camps away from their hometown as marked on their national ID cards.
This could contribute to a lower turnout on Saturday than the more than 60 per cent rates seen in previous votes.
“I don’t anticipate that there will be a high number of people participating in the whole of Iraq,” said Tanya Gilly-Khailany, vice-president of Iraq’s Seed Foundation and a former member of the Baghdad parliament. “That, coupled with other security and economic issues means that elections this time will be especially challenging for women and minority groups.”