Election result is step into unknown with no clear winner in sight

Iraq elections have come and gone, after a historically low turnout and a surprising victory by populist cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, whose Sairoon bloc won 54 seats in parliament.

“Your vote is an honour for us,” Mr Al Sadr wrote on Twitter just moments after the official announcement on Friday night. “We will not disappoint you.”

The result marks the most significant victory of his political career but it does not automatically guarantee that he will be able to pick a prime minister or determine the future of Iraqi politics.

As Baghdad embarks on discussions for a new government, which are expected to last for months, there is no telling what might ensue.

Experts and analysts stressed that it was still too early to determine what the next government would look like.

But Mr Al Sadr has indicated he is willing to form an alliance with all parties except those close to Iran. Hadi Al Amiri, who also leads the group of paramilitaries that played a key role in defeating ISIS, and former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki would therefore be unlikely partners.

But Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, said: “That’s what he says now but politics might dictate he might have to get in bed with them as well.”

Parties will have to try to form a bloc large enough for the 165seat parliamentary majority necessary to nominate a candidate.

There is the possibility of a renewed alliance between Mr Al Sadr and the head of Hikmah, Ammar Al Hakim, in a bid to fend off their mutual Iranian-backed rivals.

Mr Al Sadr has also said he could support incumbent Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi for a second term, because of similarities in their election pitch.

“At no point will I consider working with those who are either tainted by corruption or known for sectarianism,” Mr Al Abadi repeated in an opinion article published by The Washington Post yesterday.

But an official agreement is still far off. And it is too soon to tell whether any marriage of convenience would lessen Iranian influence in Baghdad.

“I can’t see the Badr organisation giving up the Ministry of Interior and I can’t see the Hashed [Al Shaabi, his group of militias] being disbanded,” Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute told The National.

So while Mr Al Sadr’s victory is by no means Iran’s preferred outcome, “there will always be lines of influence into the state from Iran”.

But what is clear is that the Sairoon bloc’s performance was a rebuke to a political elite that some voters blame for widespread corruption and dysfunctional governance.

In another tweet on Friday, Mr Al Sadr wrote: “Reform is victorious and corruption is diminishing.”

But he will not be able to rule by himself, Mr Hiltermann told

The National. And that means “bringing in the people who are already terribly corrupt”.

“It is unavoidable that he has to ally himself with people in corruption. He has to put together a coalition of at least 165 seats in parliament. So he will be dominated by the corrupt class.”

At no point will I consider working with those who are either tainted by corruption or known for sectarianism HAIDER AL ABADI Incumbent Prime Minister