MARIA SHARAPOVA can win this because she has form on her side and can take advantage of her rival’s lack of fitness, says Jon Turner

It has been a largely disappointing year or so for Maria Sharapova since her return from a 15-month doping ban in April of 2017. It started encouragingly with a semi-final run in her comeback event in Stuttgart, but the only other highlight of last season comprised a title in Tianjin, China against a rather ordinary field.

If last year proved a struggle, 2018 has not exactly ushered in an upturn in fortunes. A combination of a persistent arm injury and lack of form culminated in a run of four successive defeats and saw Sharapova fall outside the top 50 – some way short of her pre-suspension ranking of No 7.

But the arrival of the European clay court season has seen Sharapova rediscover some of the form that has made her a world No 1 and two-time French Open champion.

The first signs came in Madrid last month before the Russian’s tournament was ended by the red-hot form of Kiki Bertens in the quarter-finals. Then in Rome, Sharapova reached the semi-finals where she narrowly lost to world No 1 Simona Halep.

As results and performances improved in each tournament, it seemed Sharapova was peaking at the right time for the French Open. Based on her form in Paris so far, that is precisely what has happened.

Sharapova, seeded 28th after climbing back up the rankings following her Madrid and Rome exploits, had to overcome a mid-match wobble in the first round against Richel Hogenkamp, but has been untroubled since.

A straight sets win against Donna Vekic followed, but it was Sharapova’s victory over Karolina Pliskova in the third round that sent out an ominous warning to her rivals.

Dropping just three games against the sixth seeded Czech, Sharapova completed a dominant display in just 59 minutes.

It seems Sharapova’s game has fallen nicely into place. Her forehand, in particular, has been impeccable and her game strategy has been largely spot on. She remains susceptible on the second serve and her mobility has never been the greatest, but the 31-yearold is playing with the authority of a five-time grand slam champion again.

Across the net today will be her greatest adversary, but the Williams that Sharapova will be facing is well short of her all-conquering best following her lengthy absence to give birth in September.

Williams, 36, is competing in just her third tournament of the year. Before the French Open, the American had played only four matches and none on clay. She has got better in Paris and the power is still there, but a lack of conditioning was apparent in her second round victory over Ashleigh Barty in three sets.

Williams was allowed to play to her strengths against fellow power-hitters Kristyna Pliskova and Julia Goerges in her other matches, but Barty caused plenty of problems by extending points and making Williams move.

Sharapova, fully aware she will get blown away in a slugfest, will look to do much the same and is better equipped than Barty to absorb her rival’s power. Williams may hold a psychological advantage, but the Russian has always been mentally strong and will not be affected by history.

Instead, she must realise that this represents her best chance to end her near 14-year wait for a victory over her greatest rival.