HEZBOLLAH FACTOR IN PLAY AS LEBANON PREPARES TO FORM NEW GOVERNMENT
▶ Shiite group may be looking for veto rights within cabinet as traditional division of ministerial portfolios arise
Lebanon’s leaders have extended a deadline for the arduous task of forming a new government from the end of Ramadan to the end of Eid Al Fitr.
The major stumbling block, apart from the normal intricacies of Lebanese politics, was signals from the US against Hezbollah increasing its influence in cabinet at a time when the party is calling for more seats.
Hezbollah has also suggested reopening a 1970s-era ministry of planning instead of taking one of the “sovereign ministries”.
To avoid tension with international supporters of the government, Hezbollah traditionally avoids taking one of the key portfolios of defence, interior, foreign affairs and finance, which allow the ministers significant executive powers.
Each of these is reserved for a member of one of Lebanon’s four main sects – Maronite, Shiite, Sunni and Greek Orthodox. Hezbollah leaves the Shiite position to a member of Amal, one of its political allies.
The Ministry of Finance is run by Amal leader Ali Khalil, an adviser to the Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri
“We did not ask for a sovereign ministry and we will not ask the Prime Minister-designate for a political ministry because the sovereign ministry will be the share of Amal Movement,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last month.
“Hezbollah will work on establishing a ministry of planning and will seek to fight corruption as promised.”
Karim Bitar, of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris, said: “It has long been a request of Lebanese civil society that the ministry of planning is reintroduced so as to have the minimum level of reflection about the future, and Hezbollah might have a candidate for this ministry.
“But I do not think it is necessarily one of their priorities.”
Hezbollah held two ministerial portfolios in the past 30-member cabinet.
“This time they’re asking for three,” Mr Bitar said. “What’s important to them is not the number of portfolios but the fact that along with their allies they have what is called a blocking third, which gives them veto rights within the cabinet.”
Hezbollah used that power to walk out of cabinet with its allies and bring down a government formed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri in 2011.
Now Mr Hariri is seeking to form a cabinet where members of parliament other than himself are not serving as ministers. The proposal follows calls for the change by several main parties, including Hezbollah.
Although the two have denied any rift, some have suggested it is also a convenient way for Mr Hariri to sideline Nohad Machnouk, a member of his Future party who is serving as the Minister of Interior.
“The best way to get rid of Nohad Machnouk is to separate parliament from the cabinet,” said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.
But he said he doubted everyone would agree to expand Lebanon’s unwritten political rules to include separating MPs from the cabinet, on which there has traditionally been no ban.
Another of those unwritten agreements, however, might give Mr Hariri a different way to put Mr Machnouk aside. The idea of formalising the assigning sovereign portfolios to a particular sect, such as reserving the Ministry of Finance for a Shiite, has been raised.
“If the PM really wants to exclude Machnouk, he will give the Interior Ministry to the FPM,” Mr Khashan said, referring to the Free Patriotic Movement, the country’s largest Christian party.
While Lebanon is not alone in being a parliamentary system that often takes months to form a government, it does tend to take longer than most as its political class navigates unwritten agreements and negotiates over appointments.
“Typically formation of government takes three months,” said Imad Salamey of the Lebanese American University.
This is longer than the four weeks between Mr Hariri being asked to head the next government and the new deadline.
Mr Salamey said other countries in the region and in Europe had similar systems, using Italy’s current difficulties as an example.
But in Lebanon, with parties requiring “fair” representation and the need to ensure a balance in a country of 18 official sects, the coalition governments can take months to agree.
But Mr Salamey said a major difference in Lebanon was that the prime minister did not have a time limit for forming a government. This can be a blessing and a curse, as there is no way out of a stalemate that can last weeks, months or even years.
Elie Al Hindy, head of foreign affairs for the Lebanese Forces, the party with the greatest increase in seats after last month’s election, said he was also optimistic for the deadline.
“Our assumption is it will take a few weeks and, as usual in Lebanon, everyone will have to back down a little on their demands,” Mr Al Hindy said.
For some, that is not necessarily great news.
“The most probable scenario is that we are going to have more of the same,” Mr Bitar said. “They will probably find a formula that will as always be unsatisfactory as far as democratic citizenship, but will make the sectarian political party establishment happy.