Arab unity front and centre as leaders gather for talks on Jordan’s economy
▶ Countries of this region meeting in solidarity can help Jordan manage its current crisis
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait will hold a meeting with Jordan in the holy city of Makkah today, in a show of Arab unity after Jordan was rocked by protests last week over proposed tax reforms, including significant increases.
The meeting was summoned by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and will be attended by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forcs, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Jaber.
The leaders will “discuss means of supporting Jordan to overcome its current crisis”, the Saudi royal court said.
That probably means cash and support from the Arab nations to Jordan, which is experiencing an economic downturn. Rising unemployment has hurt Jordan’s economy, as has taking in a large number of refugees from war-racked Syria and Iraq.
King Abdullah replaced Hani Mulki as prime minister last week following widespread protests against a bill to increase income tax. The new prime minister, Omar Al Razzaz, a former World Bank economist, has promised to scrap the legislation. Jordanians have welcomed the move but said they would wait to see if the new cabinet would stop price increases.
While today’s meeting will seek ways to help Jordan through its economic crisis, there might be strings attached.
“The treasury is empty and the Gulf countries are keen to support Jordan with badly needed financial aid to help it stand on its feet,” said Imad Hmoud, an independent business analyst in Amman.
“But money does not come for free and Jordan might be asked to take a firm stance to support the Saudis in the deal of the century to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” he said. “The details are not clear, but Jordan’s role seems to be marginalised at a time when the Saudis are emerging as
key players in the Middle East peace process.”
Jordan has one of the smallest economies in the Arab world. It imports about 90 per cent of its energy needs and grants have traditionally come from GCC members Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In February this year, the United States, a close ally, pledged $6.38 billion (Dh23.44bn) in aid to the kingdom over the coming five years, which includes about $350 million in military aid.
The kingdom’s debt to GDP ratio has risen to 94 per cent from 57 per cent in 2011, when a series of uprisings shook the Arab world.
The meeting comes after the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr Anwar Gargash told The National that the concerns facing the Arab world could only be dealt with by what he called a moderate “Arab centre”, capable of dealing with a world that has become more turbulent and complicated than ever before.
“We have to be more responsible for our fate. But we cannot do it as the UAE alone. We do need to create an Arab centre,” Dr Gargash said.
The protests in Jordan, the largest since the 2011 uprisings, have caused concern in the Gulf states, according to experts. Any unrest could further destabilise the region and Jordan has for decades relied heavily on grants from oil-rich Gulf states to shore up its moribund economy.
“The demonstrations set off an alarm bell in the Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, who fret that they could undermine the stability of Jordan and expand to other countries,” said Zaid Nawaiseh, a political analyst in Amman. “Saudi Arabia also wants to support Jordan at a time there is increasing chatter in political circles about Jordan’s need to diversify its regional alliances to open up to Qatar and Iran, and this is against Saudi Arabia’s interests.
“The Saudi king is following in the footsteps of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, who also supported Jordan during the 2011 uprisings,” he said, referring to the $5bn GCC fund established in 2011 to support development projects in Jordan. Qatar, although a GCC member, never contributed to the fund.
Saudi Arabia has intervened before to help Jordan in times of crisis, but those days could soon be over if Amman does not get its house in order, observers said.
“While aid is crucial, the state has to realise that financial aid will not continue. Jordan has to adopt sound political and economic policies that would gradually limit its dependence on aid,” Mr Nawaiseh said.
Mr Al Razzaz has for now managed to defuse public discontent by announcing that he will withdraw a proposed income law that expanded the base of taxpayers in Jordan.
Today this region has polarised into two blocs: on one side sit the likes of Qatar and Iran, motivated by selfishness and seeking to sow discord; on the other reign the forces of unity and stability. The latter bloc will gather today to assist Jordan, which is coping with the strain of a political and economic crisis. Jordan’s King Abdullah will meet leaders of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in Makkah to discuss ways to help Jordan emerge from its current economic plight. The Gulf summit follows the inaugural meeting of the UAE-Saudi Coordination Council last week. In an exclusive interview with The National last week, Dr Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, spoke of the need to create a moderate “Arab centre” to counter rhetoric from those who seek to create conflict and divisions. No country in the region can go it alone. It requires unity and solidarity to steer that centre on the path to peace and unanimity. Today, Arab nations stand firm with Jordan, traditionally one of the region’s most stable nations and home to millions of refugees from Palestine and Syria, now in need of support at a time of upheaval.
Change is afoot in Jordan following an economic downturn characterised by spiralling debt, rising unemployment and endemic corruption. Incoming prime minister Omar Al Razzaz, a former World Bank economist, last week withdrew a controversial income tax bill that had triggered mass protests but that alone will not bring Jordan’s crisis to a swift conclusion. Mr Al Razzaz must fulfil stringent debt reduction requirements from the International Monetary Fund – in accordance with a $750 million loan signed in 2016 – while placating a disaffected population tired of austerity.
It is not yet clear what form the support to Jordan will take but it sets a welcome precedent of a unified front among Arab nations amid a deeply fractured geopolitical landscape, marred by the US’s ruinous decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem and Russia’s ongoing support for Bashar Al Assad in concert with Iran. Attaining the region’s objectives is in the hands of Arab states; as Mr Gargash said: “We have to be more responsible for our fate”. There is plenty of work to be done. The UN General Assembly will meet next week to vote on an Arab-backed resolution condemning Israel’s brutality in Gaza after yet more killings. Meanwhile conflict continues to rage in Syria, Yemen and beyond. It is down to those whose roots go deep in the Middle East to extend the branches of stability to their neighbours.