Summit has finally given the North Korean leader his place on the world stage

Former CIA agent predicts ‘vague statements, vague smiles’ from Kim Jong-un when he faces US president across the negotiating table today, writes Joyce Karam in Washington

The preamble to today’s summit between North Korean leader Kim Jongun and US President Donald Trump has centred on the rhetoric.

The latter has been focused on the stipulation Pyongyang will “have to de-nuke”.

But for those who have followed North Korea’s nuclear programme over the years, Mr Trump’s demand is easier said than done.

Jung Pak, a former CIA operative and current holder of the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea studies at the Brookings think tank in Washington DC, said: “The nuclear weapons are part of [Mr Kim’s] national identity and a part of the cultural, ideological, political infrastructure that keeps him afloat.” Assuming that engagement or economic openness – the latter is the main carrot dangled by the Trump government – can change the North’s policy, it would be “almost antithetical, almost offensive in a way, for somebody who has achieved and completed his grandfather’s goal”, to change tack, she said in reference to Kim Il-sung’s arms programme in the 1950s. On Saturday, Mr Trump said he would know “within the first minute” if Mr Kim was sincere about giving up his nuclear weapons. “That’s my touch, my feel, that’s what I do.”

But Ms Pak pointed to the Korean leader’s ability to mould his message and behaviour to different countries, without shifting his goals.

So far, the focus has been on personality, rather than policy.

“He’s not looking at the US government as an entity to deal with, but more in terms of how to manage Mr Trump,” Ms Pak said. “They’re looking to appeal directly to Mr Trump’s preferences and priorities in their mentions of the Trump model.”

Mr Trump’s record with agreements raises questions about how he will treat future deals. In his short tenure as president he has pulled out of accords – most recently the painstakingly negotiated Iran nuclear deal.

“Why would Kim ... believe any commitments President Trump makes when he arbitrarily tears up an agreement with which the other party is complying?” said Antony Blinken, who was deputy secretary of state under Barack Obama and, before that, a senior national security adviser at the White House.

Mr Kim’s concern is the survival of his regime. South Korean President Moon Jaein, who has no plans to attend the summit, said that the North’s leader had “concerns on whether he could trust that the US would end its hostile policy and guarantee the security of his regime when the North denuclearises itself”.

The fragility of the summit remains. It has been called off once by Mr Trump, who cited the hostility of Mr Kim’s officials.

The US president’s comments, and Pyongyang’s reaction, were preceded by US National Security Adviser John Bolton’s talk of a “Libya model” of disarmament, remarks that made reference to the fall of dictator Muammar Qaddafi.

Ms Pak told The National that for the summit to be successful “we have to find opportunities where we can. At a minimum we need to get Kim Jong-un on paper saying he is willing to denuclearise and ... that he wants to join the family of nations”.

Regardless of the outcome, Ms Pak said, the Singapore meeting is an accomplishment that neither Mr Kim’s father or grandfather were able to achieve – holding a tete-a-tete with a US president.

They “derive legitimacy and status” from such a meeting, Ms Pak said.

Mr Kim could leave the summit having given just “a vague statement, vague smiles [and a] big banquet”, Ms Pak said. “It’s up to Kim if he’s going to be a bad actor, or if he’s just going to stay quiet.”

But should the summit fail to convince Pyongyang to denuclearise, the momentum and gradual build-up of pressure on North Korea through sanctions and isolation will have been squandered.

Ms Pak said the televised summit was going to be about the perception of North Korea as a “normal” country, “making it harder to get the international community back on board to crack down on illicit activities”.

A stumbling block remains. North Korea, Ms Pak said, has yet to give up on anything it truly wants.