UNCERTAIN ROAD AHEAD FOR US AFTER HISTORIC TRUMP-KIM SUMMIT
Prospects for peace on Korean Peninsula move forwards but analysts focus on winners and losers at conclusion of leaders’ talks in Singapore
An upbeat tone from US President Donald Trump, who promised “a new chapter” in relations with North Korea, envisioning “great condos” along side the “great beaches” of Pyongyang, was not matched by experts and former officials in Washington, who were more cautious in their summary.
While the joint statement from the Singapore summit between Mr Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un committed to “work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula”, there were no concrete steps towards these goals.
On the other hand, Mr Trump, by declaring an end to US military exercises in Korea, signalled the first US compromise to Pyongyang, and something that China has long advocated.
But experts in Washington saw no real win for the US from the summit, except in the larger theme of seeking diplomacy and averting war on the peninsula. “In a negotiation where there could only be one winner, it was the North Korean leadership that incontestably emerged from the talks better off,” said Nicholas Eberstadt of the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute.
He said that “all the initial benefits were pocketed by Pyongyang” while “all the initial concessions were offered by Washington”.
After the summit, the US and its allies “must now move into damage control and salvage mode” to keep in place the “maximum pressure campaign”, Mr Eberstadt said.
Bill Richardson, a former diplomat who travelled to and led negotiations with North Korea, saw three positives and three negatives from the summit.
“On the positive side, we are on the path to diplomacy rather than military confrontation; we saw a personal connection between the two leaders; and the process started.”
The negatives, he said, were that there was “no meat on the bones, no specifics”; and second, “a very limited discussion of North Korea’s human rights record”.
He said the US promise to halt military exercises in the peninsula was unfortunate, especially because “the move was not consulted with our allies, including South Korea”.
The US military was also surprised by Mr Trump’s announcement.
Jennifer Lovett, spokeswoman for US military forces in Korea, said there was “no updated guidance on execution or cessation of training exercises”.
Mr Richardson recommended assigning US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and “not other White House officials” to handle the diplomatic process.
National Security Adviser John Bolton, a nuclear non-proliferation hawk who travelled to Singapore with Mr Trump, is also seeking a role in the process.
“The handshake between Trump and Kim was historic, but the summit outcome is mediocre at best,” said Kelsey Davenport, the non-proliferation policy director at the Arms Control Association.
The joint statement was nothing more than a “reiteration of North Korea’s past commitments to denuclearise ... and it is far too soon to characterise this vague, aspiration pledge as a success or a failure,” she said.
Follow-up meetings and a process “that trades concrete actions to reduce and roll back North Korea’s nuclear programme for security assurances from the United states” will help determine the success of early efforts, Ms Davenport said.
China was declared another winner of the summit because of the halt to US military exercises, while guaranteeing more openness to its close economic partner North Korea.
Technical meetings between Washington and Pyongyang are next. A Trump-Kim summit at the White House is on the cards if major progress is made on denuclearisation and sanctions relief.