UN warns global warming will exceed Paris goal
Global warming is on course to exceed the most stringent goal set in the Paris agreement by about 2040, threatening economic growth, the UN warns in a draft report.
Governments capping temperatures below the strict ceiling agreed to in 2015 will do so only with “rapid and far-reaching” changes in the world economy, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said.
The agreement set out goals to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a view to achieving the tougher goal of 1.5°C. The final government draft, dated June 4, is due for publication in October in South Korea after revisions and approval by the 195 governments which were signatories before the United States withdrew.
The draft will be the main scientific guide for battling climate change.
“If emissions continue at their present rate, human-induced warming will exceed 1.5°C by around 2040,” said the report, which broadly reaffirmed findings in an earlier draft in January but is more robust after 25,000 comments from experts and a wider pool of scientific literature.
The deal was weakened by US President Donald Trump’s decision last year to pull out and promote the US fossil fuel industry.
Mr Trump said the Paris accord “punished’ the US and would cost America jobs.
Temperatures are already up about 1°C and are rising at a rate of about 0.2°C a decade, according to the draft, which was requested by world leaders as part of the Paris agreement.
“Economic growth is projected to be lower at 2°C warming than at 1.5°C for many developed and developing countries,” it said.
Growth will be drained by the effects of disasters such as floods or droughts that can undermine crop growth, or an increase in human deaths from heatwaves.
In a plus-1.5°C world, for instance, sea level rises would be 10 centimetres less than at 2°C, exposing about 10 million fewer people in coastal areas to floods or storm surges.