‘Break up’ of allies likely as experts warn of dangers for region
▶ The plummeting lira threatens the security of Turks and the stability of the region
The crumbling relationship between the US and Turkey over sanctions and tariffs imposed on Ankara has led to fears over consequences for the region.
Nine days after sanctioning two Turkish cabinet members, US President Donald Trump on Friday doubled steel and aluminium tariffs, increasing pressure on the lira, which fell 20 per cent against the dollar.
The move was a response to Turkey’s refusal to release an American pastor being held on espionage charges.
“Aluminium will now be 20 per cent and steel 50 per cent. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time,” Mr Trump tweeted.
Turkey is world’s eighth biggest steel producer and eighth largest importer of steel from the US, the International Trade Administration says. The tariffs could affect $1.7 billion (Dh6.24bn) of Turkish exports.
A US official told The National
that the tariffs was one of several options offered to Mr Trump.
The move came after the failure of US-Turkish talks in Washington last week intended to gain the release Pastor Andrew Brunson from house arrest in Izmir after he was jailed in 2016.
Experts were split about Mr Trump’s tariffs decision, with some fearing it could greatly harm relations with America’s Nato ally without helping Mr Brunson.
Henri Barkey, a professor of International Relations at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, who has been critical of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said the tariffs were “an unnecessary escalation at a time when the decline of Turkish lira was already putting pressure on Turkey”.
Mr Barkey said that the decision “demonstrates that the US is not behaving rationally and is not showing patience when it is needed”.
He advised a meeting be-
tween Mr Trump and Mr Erdogan to ease the situation but Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City did not see any quick resolution.
“It is hard to imagine how the US and Turkey repair their relationship, which was already faltering, after this episode,” Mr Cook told The National. “The US and Turkey are breaking up”.
He advised that Washington should focus on how the drop in the lira affects other emerging market currencies and move to contain the damage.
Others feared this could drive Turkey closer to Russia and affect US-Turkish co-operation in Syria.
Mr Erdogan called Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately after the tariffs announcement and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected in Turkey tomorrow.
US Defence Secretary James Mattis called Turkish Minister of Defence Hulusi Akar to discuss defence relations, Syria and counter-terrorism.
But Aykan Erdemir, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies in Washington, said Mr Trump’s tariffs announcement came “at the worst possible time for Mr Erdogan” and fitted with the US strategy to increase pressure on Ankara until Mr Brunson was released.
“At this point, the ball is in Mr Erdogan’s court,” Mr Erdemir said. “He is unlikely to back down and will continue to dig himself and the Turkish economy into a deeper hole.”
The Trump government was expecting Mr Brunson’s release on July 18, the day of his court appearance, but the ruling kept him in jail until his next hearing in October. A week later he was moved to house arrest.
The Washington Post reported that Mr Trump and Mr Erdogan agreed on a deal that would free Mr Brunson in exchange for Turkish national Ebru Ozkhan being release by Israel. Ms Ozkhan was released on July 16.
Turkish media reported that Mr Erdogan was seeking the release of Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a Turkish banker serving a 32 months sentence in New York for evading Iran sanctions. But a diplomatic source told
The National that the US had no intention of exchanging Mr Brunson for Mr Atilla, despite a visit by Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal to Washington last week.
Pressure on Turkey is also coming from US Congress, which moved late last month to block further F-35 deliveries to Turkey until it cancelled the S-400 defence system deal with Russia and Mr Brunson was released.
Another bill being debated calls to restrict international loans to Ankara until it frees the pastor.
Experts split on Trump tariffs, with some fearing they could greatly harm ties with Nato ally without helping arrested pastor
Less than two months after an election win that brought with it unfettered new powers, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing his first major crisis – one entirely of his own making. In response to crippling steel and aluminium tariffs, following US sanctions on two Turkish ministers, the lira’s value plummeted 20 per cent, marking the currency’s worst day for two decades. Mr Erdogan’s response was a belligerent “shame on you” as he vowed to defy US “threats”.
Deteriorating relations with the US are just the tip of the iceberg. It is the foremost responsibility of any nation’s leader to ensure his or her people are not left struggling as a result of avoidable economic decline. But it is Mr Erdogan’s bunker mentality that has brought Turkey to the brink. He retreated to the trenches after a failed coup in 2016 and while he has failed at a core tenet of leadership – namely managing the economy – his only response has been defiance and threats of a “war of independence” with the US. He is in denial about the current economic crisis, branding the lira’s collapse a “currency plot” instead of admitting his own failures. At a party meeting in Rize yesterday, he said he would be switching allegiance instead to China, Russia and Ukraine. The longer this crisis drags on, the more damaging it will become for the people of Turkey and the region’s stability.
The lira’s collapse gives it the unenviable accolade of being this year’s worst performing global currency, sparking fears of a banking crisis. Mr Trump’s sanctions could affect $1.7 billion of Turkish exports. Given the exposure of European and Asian banks to Turkish debt, the consequences will be felt across international markets. The Turkish Central Bank should demonstrate its independence and raise interest rates – which Mr Erdogan has branded a “tool of exploitation”. Approaching the IMF for a bailout package is also an option. But rather than acting responsibly, Mr Erdogan – who appointed his son-in-law as finance minister – has blamed foreign powers for the plight befalling his country. In an extraordinary gesture, he urged Turks to sell their family gold to shore up the lira – the kind of last-gasp appeal commonly reserved for nations at war. Having acquired unprecedented powers, responsibility for Turkey’s economic woes fall squarely on his shoulders.
Enmity between Ankara and Washington poses a great threat. As Nato’s second largest army, Turkey polices the bloc’s eastern flank. It has absorbed millions of Syrian refugees and is a power broker in the Syrian conflict after involving itself in Afrin and Idlib. Ultimately, Mr Erdogan’s courting of Iran and Russia, who have stood by Ankara in this dispute, mark Turkey’s transformation from a sympathetic Nato partner and EU hopeful to an unpredictable adversary. That sets a worrying precedent for the rest of the region.