UN SAYS 30,000 ISIS FIGHTERS ARE LYING IN WAIT IN IRAQ AND SYRIA
▶ Strategy has changed from a ‘pseudo state’ to ‘covert network’ since territory loss, report says
A covert version of ISIS with tens of thousands of members will survive in Iraq and Syria even after the militant group loses the last of its territory, UN experts say.
At the height of its power, ISIS controlled the cities of Mosul and Raqqa and ruled over millions of people.
Today, it is consigned to a small patch of desert in Iraq’s Anbar province, some settlements along the Euphrates River and a barren volcanic field in southern Syria.
But a report by UN sanctions monitors on Monday said the group still had between 20,000 and 30,000 members across the two countries, most of whom are not engaged in fighting but could be called on later.
Its ranks include “a significant component of the many thousands of active foreign terrorist fighters”, the UN said.
Faced with the loss of nearly all its territory, the group is “reverting from a proto-state structure to a covert network” in Syria and Iraq, with a presence in neighbouring countries.
The report paints a bleak outlook for security forces, even as their respective militaries continue to chalk up victories on the battlefield.
It also suggests that the underlying grievances that allowed the group to maintain a support network among local populations still linger.
Estimates of the number of active ISIS fighters have fluctuated over time. The United States-led coalition said in December that fewer than 3,000 were engaged in Iraq and Syria. But that number belies the challenge ahead, as dormant sleeper cells are likely to become active again.
The UN experts said many ISIS members were “hiding out in sympathetic communities and urban areas”.
A large number of Iraqi and Syrian nationals who successfully left the conflict zone after fighting for ISIS had simply returned home, and “despite the casualties that they have suffered, many intend to continue to fight”.
The report cited unidentified Security Council member states for the estimate of the number of ISIS members, but they appear to match an assessment from the US Department of Defence in June, which estimated that between 15,500 and 17,100 ISIS fighters remained in Iraq, and between 13,100 and 14,500 in Syria.
Its predictions about the future strategy of ISIS are already coming true in Iraq, where the group is making a comeback.
“This is called the stealthfighter strategy,” Hisham Al Hashimi, a counter-terrorism writer and former security adviser to the Iraqi government, told The National.
“In Iraq, ISIS is already expanding its influence in remote villages through attacks, assassinations and kidnappings of village elders and tribal leaders loyal to the government.”
Mr Hashimi said a nuanced, hybrid approach was needed to combat ISIS in the future, including a special forces unit to hunt fighters down and an effort to encourage citizens in vulnerable areas to report suspected members.
The new, covert ISIS will be forced to operate on a shoestring budget compared with the billions of dollars it once made through taxation and oil sales. One member state told the UN experts that the group’s cash reserves had dropped to the “low hundreds of millions of dollars”.
It will also no longer be able to rely on foreign fighters because the flow “has essentially come to a halt”, the report said.
As the last pockets of ISIS territory continue to shrink, the debate over what constitutes a victory against the group is likely to turn increasingly to ideology.
In that regard, ISIS has not yet been defeated, according to analysts.
“The true strength of ISIS lies in the generation of young Syrians and Iraqis that the group has chosen to preserve for a future date,”said Nicholas Heras, Middle East Security Fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.
“These young people are the future of ISIS, and in a very real sense they have come of age in a time when ISIS was both the authority figure and the most effective champion for the Sunni community that they have known.”
Mr Heras said that this “brand loyalty” among these young supporters was preventing a lasting defeat of ISIS.
The US echoed that concern. In January, Lt Genl Paul Funk, of the US-led coalition, said the group’s “repressive ideology continues”.
“The conditions remain present for Daesh to return, and only through coalition and international efforts can the defeat become permanent,” said Lt Genl Funk.
It is unclear how long US forces will stay in Syria. US President Donald Trump has spoken of his desire to remove US forces from the country, but military leaders insist the US is not going anywhere soon.
Col Sean Ryan, a spokesman for the coalition, told that the US would remain in Syria until ISIS was “completely defeated”.
“As far as we are concerned, ISIS remains a threat as long as they have the capability to launch terror attacks anywhere,” he said.
Outside Iraq and Syria, the report said a significant number of ISIS fighters had made their way to Afghanistan, where an estimated 3,500 to 4,500 fighters are present.
It said between 3,000 and 4,000 ISIS fighters were dispersed across Libya, while in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula about 1,000 had pledged allegiance.