Turkey says Syrian regime bombing of Idlib would be catastrophic move
Last province under opposition control is in Assad’s sights and it is civilians who will suffer
As Turkey’s Foreign Minister made the case for a peaceful resolution to the situation in Idlib, he was standing next to the man whose government could start a campaign to lay waste to it.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said yesterday that the Syrian government of Bashar Al Assad was under attack by extremists aligned with Al Qaeda in Idlib, the last province in Syria under the opposition’s control.
Turkish minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said: “It would be catastrophic to bomb the whole of Idlib.”
With momentum on its side and the backing of its allies in Moscow and Tehran, the Syrian government has pressed its advantage and reclaimed much of the country.
Now international attention has focused on Idlib, a province bordering Turkey with more than three million people.
Concerns that an offensive could spark another wave of refugees were evident in France and Germany’s decision to attend a summit on the crisis announced by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday.
“I remain deeply concerned for the safety and protection of the millions of civilians living in this area, many of them displaced multiple times, and am alarmed such incidents are part of a further escalation of the conflict in the area,” said Panos Moumtzis, the UN’s humanitarian co-ordinator for Syria.
“A military operation in [Idlib] and surrounding areas similar to what was seen in other parts of Syria will not only endanger many of the more than three million civilians in this densely populated area, but will probably severely affect humanitarian partners’ ability to deliver lifesaving assistance.”
The Syrian regime has dropped fliers urging rebels to reconcile with the government.
But behind the scenes, Turkey has sought to defuse a crisis that is complicated by a complex battlefield, humanitarian distress and a nearby army trained and paid for by Ankara.
Idlib is already buckling under the sustained pressure of sustaining hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people.
In surrender deals across Syria, rebels have chosen to be displaced to Idlib rather than live under Mr Al Assad, making the journey from Homs, Aleppo, Deraa and the Damascus suburbs.
The Turkish military has established 12 observation points ringing Idlib, offering a buffer against Syrian government attacks.
But the battlefield within Idlib is a mix of extremists, rebels and members of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a coalition that includes fighters from Jabhat Al Nusra, formerly the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.
Those fighters conquered Idlib in 2015. Their presence and their efforts to exert greater control over society in Idlib despite civil resistance, will serve to justify the Syrian government’s bombardment, as it has in other parts of the country.
But Turkey has one more card up its sleeve.
It has built a force of up to 30,000 fighters, many of them trained in Turkey and paid a regular wage, who carried out a campaign this year to conquer Afrin, an enclave that had been under the control of Kurdish militants whom Turkey considers terrorists.
They also rolled back ISIS in northern Syria, taking control of towns such as Jarablus and Al Bab, rebuilding services and homes.
The quick capture of Afrin showed the military effectiveness of a force that was dubbed the National Army by the opposition, despite its overt Turkish support.
Several rebel commanders said this year that they backed the Afrin campaign partly because it offered a corridor into Idlib.
That would allow them to attempt to oust Al Qaeda-linked militants there – if their Turkish backers gave the order.
Last week, the rebel army’s senior command said they would be willing to unite with other opposition factions in Idlib to defend the province from government attack, a plan that would complicate an Idlib offensive.
It could also in the medium term leave a chunk of Syria out of government control.
With Idlib, few know how the last major military campaign in the Syrian conflict will unfold.
But most agree civilians will pay the highest price.