NASRALLAH’S BRAZEN FRONT BELIES THE DAMAGE FROM US SANCTIONS ON IRAN
▶ As pressure builds on Tehran, its ally at the head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah talks a good fight to many audiences
Hassan Nasrallah, the elusive leader of the militant group Hezbollah, appeared on big screens in southern Beirut on Tuesday night to deliver a message to the party’s supporters – we are stronger than ever.
The leader of the militia and political party is well known for his fiery televised speeches made from an undisclosed location, particularly when he marks the anniversary of the 2006 war.
But now, 12 years after the 34day conflict, he has good reason to rally his followers.
Mr Nasrallah regularly weaves historical anecdotes into contemporary current affairs, using stark moments in the history of the party to hammer home a point about today’s policies. On Tuesday, the 2006 war provided that backdrop.
His appearance came days after US sanctions were imposed on Iran after President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the nuclear deal with Tehran of 2015.While the sanctions are aimed at the country’s leaders, they will also affect its primary sponsor in Lebanon.
Hezbollah grew into a major force during the Lebanese civil war and the Israeli invasion in the 1980s.
Beating Israel out of southern Lebanon in 2000, then surviving the month-long war in 2006 was a feat. But today, observers say it is more powerful politically and militarily than before, even as it faces major challenges.
“I see them a bit more cornered now than they were back in 2012 to 2013,” says analyst Muhanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Centre.
Mr Nasrallah warned any country that tried to take on the group would fail.
The intended audience of his speech was not only Hezbollah’s followers, but the wider international community – particularly the US and Israel, two of the most prominent opponents of the group and the Iranian government.
Hezbollah’s primary concern at present is that its economic strength will be reversed by Mr Trump’s sanctions, and Mr Nasrallah’s speech can be viewed in that light. He downplayed the threat of sanctions, saying Iran had faced them since the 1979 revolution but remained powerful.
“I just see this as a particular moment in which they need to tell the world that we can hurt you,” Mr Hage Ali says. “I think the statements echo the statements that came out of Iran.”
He was referring to Tehran’s threats to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
While Hezbollah is on the back foot internationally, in Lebanon and Syria it arguably has more might than before.
The Iran-backed proxy has enough power in Lebanon to appear unthreatened by a splintered and ineffectual parliament, where its allies busily push its agenda.
In May’s parliamentary election it consolidated its influence, while Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement was reduced in size.
Hezbollah has cleared most of the Lebanese-Syrian border of ISIS fighters, some of which it fought alongside the Lebanese army.
Its political progress and counter-terrorism missions speak to its oft-repeated motto – the people, the army and the resistance – that seeks to paint them as a key protector of Lebanese sovereignty and a force woven into the country’s fabric.
But it is on the battlefield where Hezbollah has truly developed since 2006. It entered the Syrian civil war in May 2013 on the side of longstanding ally, President Bashar Al Assad.
War offered the opportunity to bolster its arsenal, expertise and ranks.
Its arsenal before the 2006 war was estimated at 33,000 rockets and missiles. This figure increased fourfold by the time the group was fully engaged in the Syrian conflict.
Its ranks soared from a few thousand in 2006 to more than 20,000 less than a decade later. And crucially, many of those are now battle-hardened.
Timor Goksel, former spokesman and senior adviser for the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, says the group is “more organised” after Syria.
The group is “more of a military-type organisation rather than a militia,” said Mr Goksel, who works with Al Monitor news website.
“It is a strong army in the region,” he says. “There are not too many organised militaries in the region, so Nasrallah is not totally off the mark.”
So there is some credence to Mr Nasrallah’s words. But his messages are always considered and spoken for a strategic reason, not just to boast.
To that end, the bellicose show was a effort to raise morale among the group’s members and its backers in Tehran.
As thousands gathered to hear his words, the shadowy Hezbollah chief had an ominous warning for Israel: “As we won the July War in 2006, we shall also emerge victorious very soon.”