Idlib’s doctors fear another Aleppo as last offensive looms large
▶ Medics run low on supplies as Assad targets north-western region
Doctors and medical teams are preparing for the worst as international powers scramble to avoid a devastating Syrian and Russian assault on the last rebel holdout of Idlib.
Nearly three million civilians are trapped in the province, surrounded by Syrian government forces and a closed Turkish border to the north. The UN says a large-scale offensive would cause a humanitarian catastrophe.
An attack on Idlib would overwhelm already-struggling hospitals.
“There is a shortage of surgeons, of doctors and of everything,” Dr Ahmed Kejeh said from a hospital in the east of the province.
The Syrian government promised to recapture Idlib, nearly two-thirds of which is controlled by the extremist rebel umbrella group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham.
Russian warplanes launched air strikes on Tuesday against the group but monitors from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 13 civilians, including children, were killed.
Talks between Russia, Turkey and Iran are due to take place on Friday, and analysts say they may be followed by an all-out attack.
The talks will probably revolve around the effects on Turkey, which has a considerable military presence in the area and supports some rebel groups opposed to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad.
In comments published yesterday, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan said “a serious massacre could take place”. He said he hoped Friday’s summit would avoid such an outcome.
“We will take the situation to a positive point at this summit,” Mr Erdogan told Turkish newspaper Hurriyet. “God willing, we will be able to hinder the Syrian government’s extremism in the region.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the situation in Idlib would become clearer “from a military point of view” after the three countries meet.
An assault on Idlib could become one of the deadliest battles of the Syrian civil war.
Doctors in Syria are concerned hospitals will again be hit by Russian and Syrian air strikes.
More healthcare centres were targeted in the first four months of this year than in the whole of 2017, the UN says. Eighty-nine people were killed, including staff and patients.
Hospitals in Idlib tried to minimise the risk of attack by sharing their co-ordinates with Russia. This strategy has been used in other areas such as Deraa and Ghouta to limited effect.
“This time the situation will be worse than before,” said Mohamad Tannari, a doctor in rural Idlib. “I can say that people are scared, there is fear.
“If the shelling is as heavy as it was yesterday, then all of the hospitals and medical crews won’t be able to handle or deal with the amount of people who may come in wounded, because these local hospitals have a limited capacity.”
Dr Zaher Sahloul, president of MedGlobal, which sends medical missions to Syria, said even a limited offensive in the southern and western parts of Idlib would cause huge displacement, which could spell disaster for health workers trying to treat patients.
“Even if you have hospitals running and they have medical supplies and medication, when you have large displacement – some are estimating between 700,000 and 1.5 million – what are they going to do?” Dr Sahloul asked. “People won’t be able to come to the hospitals.”
Dr Sahloul, speaking from Turkey, said a contingency plan was being put in place to accommodate about 250,000 displaced people in areas closer to the Turkish border, but anything above that number would be catastrophic.
“If they go further north, the area is densely populated with internally displaced people and it’s going to create chaos,” he said.
About half of Idlib’s population are displaced from other parts of the country. The same is true for many of the doctors working there. Most worked in areas under heavy bombardment but the battle for Idlib could be the last major fight.
Some doctors have been receiving counselling and psychological support once a week by phone, Dr Kejeh said.
Dr Sahloul said others had a “surrender-to-fate attitude”.
“They have been dealing with these attacks and displacements for the past seven years. If it comes to the worst, they can say they tried their best.”