Turkey-Russia talks aim to stall Idlib assault

Turkey sent reinforcements to positions in Idlib ahead of talks with Moscow today on staving off a Russia-backed assault by the Syrian regime on the last rebel-held province in Syria.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is part of Turkey’s efforts to prevent or minimise military action in Idlib. Turkey, the United Nations and western powers have warned that an all-out military offensive on the densely populated province would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.

Turkey says it will not be able to deal with the flood of civilians expected to flee towards its border should fighting break out.

Turkey’s 12 outposts in Idlib were set up under a de-escalation agreement last September with Russia and Iran, President Bashar Al Assad’s other main ally, but with all other rebel-held areas recaptured since then, the Syrian regime is keen to end the last pocket of resistance in Syria’s seven-year war.

Ankara also exerts influence in Idlib through an alliance of rebel groups that it supports called called the National Front for Liberation, but two thirds of the province is under the control of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a former Al Qaeda affiliate.

While Turkey is likely to seek an agreement with Russia to focus an offensive on HTS, restricting the fighting to the extremists is expected to be difficult because the group is dispersed throughout Idlib.

Meanwhile, the remaining 50,000 of an estimated 60,000 opposition fighters in Idlib are digging in for a final stand against the regime. Many were sent to the province under surrender deals with the regime that also drove large numbers of civilians to Idlib, doubling its population to about three million people.

The potential for a humanitarian crisis has led the US to come out strongly against any attack on Idlib, and warn of retaliation in case of chemical attacks seen in previous regime offensives against rebel-held areas.

The US military has been working on options for President Donald Trump should this happen, and the State Department has sent top officials to discuss the crisis with Syria’s neighbours and European allies.

While a wide offensive is likely only after a green light from Russia, Moscow is also subject to diplomatic considerations. Russia is keen on strengthening ties with Turkey at a time when Ankara’s relations with Washington are at a low point. Turkey’s call for the US and Europe for support against an attack on Idlib, meanwhile, appear to be a way to pressure Russia to accept its proposals for a solution in Idlib that avoids a full-scale attack.

But Turkey’s last appeal to Russia and Iran at a summit in Tehran on September 7 was snubbed, with the Assad allies insisting on the regime’s right to reclaim its territory and stamp out extremist groups.