Idlib offensive will be ‘challenging and complex,’
The Syrian government promised to recapture all of Idlib from rebel groups and has spent the past few weeks organising its forces, but a military operation to retake the province could be the most challenging and complex battle of the entire war.
Idlib is the last refuge of armed opposition to President Bashar Al Assad. For the past few years, the province has been used as a dumping ground for rebel groups defeated in other parts of the country.
After a series of surrenders from battles allowed rebels to retreat to Idlib, there is nowhere else for those fighters to run.
The United States estimates there are about 30,000 opposition fighters spread across the province, while others put the number as high as 100,000.
Turkey supports a coalition of rebel groups and holds a dozen military observation posts scattered across the edges. But two-thirds of Idlib is controlled by the former Al Qaeda-affiliate Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, estimated to be about 10,000 strong.
Squaring off against them will be up to 25,000 Syrian troops, dozens of armoured units, heavy artillery, plus Russian air and naval support.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said an all-out attack would cause a bloodbath, and he has been negotiating for an alternative. Exactly what the battle for Idlib will look like depends on whether Turkey and Russia can agree on how to deal with HTS.
Turkey is pushing for a solution that does not involve a large-scale government offensive, which would send another wave of refugees towards its border.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Friday: “We are ready to co-operate with everyone to fight terrorist organisations. But killing everyone – civilians, women, children – like this in the name of fighting terrorist organisations is not right and is not humane.”
Russia and Syria make little distinction between the rebels who oppose Mr Al Assad, and are eager for an offensive.
Even if Turkey can convince Russia and Syria to limit their aims in Idlib, there are some targets they are unlikely to leave alone.
The early stages of an offensive are likely to focus on two main priorities: stopping drone attacks against Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Latakia, and reopening the M5 motorway that connects Damascus with Aleppo.
“Assad and his allies need an objective in Idlib that can be gained with speed and then trumpeted as a big victory before a punitive response comes,” said Nicholas Heras, Middle East Security Fellow at
The battle for Idlib will pit 25,000 Syrian troops against more than 30,000 rebels and 10,000 HTS militants
the Centre for a New American Security, which describes itself as an independent, bipartisan, non-profit policy organisation.
“For those purposes, areas along the M5 in the southern and eastern areas of Greater Idlib, where the terrain favours Assad’s armour, or massive bombardment and commando raids in the western areas of Greater Idlib in Latakia, would be most likely,” he said.
There has so far been no indication that large numbers of Iranian forces or Hezbollah units are planning to be involved in the attack on Idlib.
According to the pro-government Al Masdar News, nine Syrian army divisions will take part, alongside the elite Republican Guard. They will be supported by 15 Russian naval vessels in the Mediterranean Sea and Russian air support.
A Syrian government official told Reuters that any attack would probably take place in phases, which would first target Jisr Al Shughour and the Al Ghab plain on the western side of the rebel territory. With no agreement with Turkey, Syrian government forces would then face a daunting series of urban battles against rebel fighters making a last stand, with the potential for Turkish forces to get caught up in the battle.
Should Turkey and Russia strike a deal, the picture will be quite different. There have been suggestions that Turkey would stand aside and allow Russia and Syria to carry out targeted strikes against HTS, and perhaps participate in a campaign against it.
But such an attack would create huge complications for Turkey, given that the group has spread itself throughout the province, and most rebels would not support it.
Turkey’s preferred option is to “shape conditions in which a substantial portion of HTS is willing to submit itself to Turkish instruction,” said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a non-profit US think tank.
Turkey would use pressure to force HTS to dissolve, “or to engage constructively in some broader negotiated compromise for the north-west”.
In which case, the battle for Idlib may resemble something closer to a low-level conflict between Turkey and elements within HTS, with the eventual aim of causing its dissolution.
“Turkish intelligence service, the MIT, has been involved in facilitating the assassination of HTS commanders who openly refused to go along with continued de-escalation, and others accused of actively trying to spoil de-escalation,” Mr Lister said.
However, the group has so far rejected Turkey’s calls to lay down its arms or dissolve into a coalition of Ankara-backed groups.
In the meantime, Ankara has been bolstering its rebel allies with shipments of ammunition and weapons to dissuade a Syrian government attack.
Resupply followed the failure of talks between Russia, Turkey and Iran to find a solution.
The message from Turkey is that if talks fail, the costs of an attack will be high.