IDLIB DEAL BRINGS RELIEF, BUT CONCERNS REMAIN
▶ The agreement solves immediate problems for Russia and Turkey, but it will probably be seen as a setback in Damascus and by extremist groups
Adeal between Russia and Turkey to create a demilitarised zone on the borders of Idlib may have avoided a bloody showdown endangering nearly three million civilians.
But while it may grant a temporary reprieve for residents of the northern province, potential spoilers lie ahead.
The deal will result in the creation of a buffer zone 15 kilometres to 20km wide around the front lines of Idlib, patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops.
Radical rebel groups that occupy those areas will be forced to withdraw deeper into the province. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after four hours of talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that the move would “prevent a humanitarian tragedy”.
After living under the threat of a government assault for weeks, the news was greeted with relief by residents of Idlib.
“I feel very happy tonight because the situation here did not allow for a disaster like that to happen,” said Qusay Noor, from the town of Mara Al Nu’man.
“People are relieved. They will have some time to get their bearings.”
The agreement solves some immediate problems for Russia and Turkey. Moscow was keen to halt drone attacks against its Hmeimim base in Latakia, which a buffer zone will go some way to achieving. Turkey, which backs a number of rebel groups in the province and has a dozen military observation posts scattered around its edges, wanted to delay a government attack to give it more time to deal with radical groups in Idlib and prevent another wave of refugees heading to its border.
The Syrian state news agency said the government “welcomed any initiative that stops bloodshed and contributes to re-establishing security and stability”, but the deal is something of a setback for Damascus, which has repeatedly expressed a desire to recapture all of the province as quickly as possible.
It was not all bad news, however – the agreement also states that the M4 and M5 motorways that run through the province will be opened to traffic by the year’s end – a key aim of the government offensive.
At the very least, a potential humanitarian disaster has been delayed. But the deal also adds another layer of complexity to a volatile area in which similar deals have been reneged upon in the past.
The announcement of de-escalation zones in Idlib and other parts of the country in May last year was followed by a sharp increase in government air strikes over the next few months, which caused enormous civilian casualties and the targeting of medical facilities.
“Even before the ink is dry on the deal, spoilers will be plotting to undermine it,” said Kristyan Benedict, Amnesty International UK crisis campaigns manager. “These include figures within Assad’s regime ... and extremist armed groups seeking to impose their own authoritarian will on the region.
“Russia also has form in breaking agreements it has entered into, including numerous attacks on civilians in so-called de-escalation zones. We’ll see in the days ahead if Russia and Turkey do have the power to ensure civilians are protected or if it is yet another false start undermined by competing warlords.”
One of the biggest potential spoilers is the very group that Russia and Syria were keenest to confront militarily – the former Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), an extremist rebel group of approximately 10,000 fighters that controls about two thirds of Idlib.
The group has spoken out vehemently against any co-operation with Turkey, and vowed to fight to the death rather than give up its weapons. But Ankara has sought to pressure the group to submit to its direction.
This deal is likely to do precisely that, according to Charles Lister, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
“The introduction of a socalled demilitarised zone – this actually looks more like a ‘de-extremist zone’ – places a great deal of extra pressure on HTS to abide by something that it’ll find extremely hard to justify internally,” he told The National.
“This undoubtedly raises the likelihood of HTS breaking apart into multiple sub-factions, with some willing to abide by the agreement and others who will refuse and insist on resisting.”
How HTS reacts will be critical to the survival of the agreement.
One official from the group posted a message on Telegram that suggested it would resist attempts to disarm.
“Whoever asks you to surrender your weapon, he deserves most to be fought, ahead of others,” wrote Abu Al Yaqadhan Al Masri, according to a translation by Sam Heller, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
“The coming days are pregnant with surprises, so prepare for epic battles,” he said.
Bur Turkish-backed rebels welcomed the move. “It buries Assad’s dreams of imposing his full control over Syria,” Mustafa Sejari, a Free Syria Army official, told Reuters.
Beyond the immediate changes on the ground, Russia has scored a diplomatic victory by striking a deal with Turkey, one that avoids damaging an important strategic relationship with Ankara while achieving its own aims in Syria.
“Russia doesn’t like the rebels and they want to help Assad lock down his victory, but they also have strong incentives to continue courting the Turks,” said Aron Lund, a fellow with The Century Foundation think tank.
“Syria is just a small part of what Putin cares about. If he can just make the Syrian conflict quiet and unthreatening with Assad still in power, then that’s great. Then Russia has won the war, more or less.”