Syrian situation looms over Lebanese Cabinet deadlock
After four months of horse trading and public rifts between party leaders, Lebanon is still no closer to forming a new government.
In May, the country held its first parliamentary elections for nine years. These were delayed by instability from the war in neighbouring Syria and long-running disagreement over a new electoral law.
Prime minister-designate Saad Hariri has been trying to form a Cabinet since then, but disagreements over representation and regional pressures have caused a deadlock.
The impasse has put at risk billions of dollars in grants and loans pledged in April by the international community at a time when Lebanon’s economy is under severe strain.
At the root of the delays are disagreements over the ministries assigned to each party – a perennial feature of Lebanese politics whereby positions are negotiated through back-room talks until a consensus is reached that allocates fair representation to each party.
Lebanon’s political system is based on a confessional arrangement that allocates power among its 18 different sects. But exactly how cabinet posts are distributed among those sects is often a source of tension.
Mr Hariri’s Future Movement, for example, is facing pressure to cede ministries to Sunni leaders outside his political bloc after losses in May’s elections.
Conversely, the Lebanese Forces party is demanding a greater number of positions from President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement after it exceeded expectations.
Talks are also said to be stalled over a demand from the FPM for 11 seats in the expected 30-member cabinet, which would give it a veto over all government policy.
A simmering row between the FPM and the Progressive Socialist Party has taken centre stage in recent days, over alleged attempts by the FPM to hand cabinet seats to Talal Arslan, a Druze rival of PSP leader Walid Jumblatt.
On Sunday, Mr Jumblatt attacked FPM chief Gebran Bassil, the son-in-law of President Aoun, without naming him.
“The son-in-law is seeking to consolidate his hegemony and we are the only ones opposing him,” he tweeted. “The rest are a group of monuments and corpses whose only concern is to split shares. Do not play with fire.”
But these local squabbles are outweighed by regional concerns, analysts said.
“All of these local issues are put in front to hide the real problem, which is the return of the Syrian regime’s influence on Lebanon,” said Joseph Bahout, non-resident scholar in Carnegie’s Middle East Programme.
“The regime has clearly sent a message to Hariri saying that any formation of government will have to accept that relations will get back to normal.
“But Hariri has been resisting this,” he said.
The issue of Syrian influence is a major dividing line in Lebanese politics.
Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s allies in Lebanon, among them Hezbollah and Mr Aoun’s party, wish to see ties fully restored. Until 2005, Syrian forces occupied Lebanon and major political decisions were diktats issued by Damascus. Mr Hariri has rejected normalising ties until a political solution is reached in Syria.
Separately, an international tribunal set up to investigate the assassination of his father, former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, will deliver a verdict in the coming months.
Five Hezbollah members were indicted for the killing, which is thought to have been linked to the older Hariri’s opposition to Syrian rule in Lebanon.
Speaking last month, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speculated that Mr Hariri might be delaying the formation of a cabinet until that verdict is delivered and more international pressure is brought to bear on the group.
“Some [in Mr Hariri’s camp] say that the main reason behind the delay in cabinet formation is that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is to issue its verdict in September and the new situation in the country will be the basis of the formation,” he said last month.
“The STL does not mean anything to Hezbollah, and any statement issued by it is of no value to them,” he said.
The tribunal is not known for speed but hopes that it can reach a decision next year.