An ‘Arab Nato’ for the GCC?,
US President Donald Trump has backed plans to offer a Middle East Security Alliance to members of the GCC that support America’s stand on Iran.
The proposal is expected to be discussed behind the scenes at the UN General Assembly meetings in New York.
Diplomats regard the evolving position of Washington towards a new regional core group as a product of the Iran situation, but also part of the Middle East peace process review by Mr Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
“It’s encouraging to us that something like an Arab Nato could be on the table to help provide a context for US involvement in regional security,” a Middle East diplomat said.
Mr Trump has been confrontational in his handling of the European partners in Nato but officials say the model could inspire a new formation in the region.
The issue of Iran is set to dominate the assembly summit.
If there is to be a convergence of ideas around a security alliance agreement, it will bring a moment of truth for Qatar, which shares the North Dome natural gas deposit with Tehran.
Officials said the proposed partners – the UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain – would represent a strong consensus on Iran if the US wanted to pull the group together.
Since withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran this year, Mr Trump has moved swiftly to put the Iranian economy under sanctions pressure.
The policy has been far more successful in isolating the Iranian economy than critics predicted.
Richard Nephew, an Iran expert at Columbia University, has predicted that the only western businesses in a position to continue trading with Iran will be small and medium-sized enterprises in Europe. Projections of a steep drop-off in Iranian oil exports after a second round of sanctions in November will increase the pressure on the regime even more.
At the General Assembly, commercial ties across the Gulf will be a focus for the White House as Mr Trump holds meetings before and after he chairs a special session of the Security Council on the issue.
“Any country that is a source of financing for Iran is going to see its position fall on Trump’s deaf ears,” said Olivier Guitta, managing director of international risk consultancy GlobalStrat.
“Iran is for him the main thing. Those states with the most to lose are those doing business with Iran.
“Qatar has a lot to lose because they are going to be under pressure to cut off their good relations with Iran, which in turn could affect the gasfield, if they want a hearing from Trump.”
Dr Anwar Gargash, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, revealed last week that the Emirates hoped Arab Gulf states would be party to proposed US negotiations with Iran on a treaty to curb Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes.
Dr Gargash was speaking after the top US official for Iran affairs, Brian Hook, called for talks on a new treaty between Iran and the US.
There was a strong international debut for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the reform programme led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, at the assembly meetings last year.
The Misk Forum will again be a showcase for the rising process of economic reform and modernisation in the GCC.
The region will seek to share its leading role in brokering the push for peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia, as well as wider mediation across the Horn of Africa.
A lot has changed in the year since the UN countries last gathered in New York.
For the region, the US agenda on Iran looms above all else.
Mr Guitta said the removal of Rex Tillerson as US secretary of state as Iran policy shifted had changed the dynamic in Washington’s relationship with the GCC countries.
“[US Secretary of State] Pompeo and [Defence Secretary] Mattis are focused on Iran and getting the kind of co-operation they need to put Iran under pressure,” he said. “They are fine as long as they are getting co-operation on Iran.”
Qatar has a lot to lose because they are going to be under pressure to cut off their good relations with Iran OLIVIER GUITTA Managing director, Global Strat