The clarity of Trump’s policies will force world leaders to take note at UNGA
US President Donald Trump will once again be the star among the many heads of state coming to New York for the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) this year – not only because of his unusual personality traits but also because world leaders are starting to take his policies much more seriously; some with reassurance, others with dread. The clarity of Mr Trump’s policies with regards to China, Iran, European allies and others has forced them to sit up and adapt to the new landscape. The question is no longer what Mr Trump wants but what should be done in light of what he wants.
The most feverishly anticipated meeting so far is with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, although it is unlikely to take place. Such a meeting, if the Iranian leadership agrees to it, would have major implications and will be an automatic trigger for the postponement, if not the abandonment, of further US sanctions set to come into effect on November 4.
What the leadership in Tehran fears, however, are the demands of the US president, which it would likely have to reject because they will probably include reforms the regime cannot stomach. Brian Hook, Washington’s special representative for Iran, gave a glimpse of what Mr Trump had in mind when he proposed negotiations for a treaty that would curb Iran’s ballistic missile programme and rein in Iran’s proxy wars in the Arab region.
The other very unlikely meeting would be with Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority. Mr Trump might, however, give the world leaders an idea of the “deal of the century” that his son-inlaw Jared Kushner is preparing. If so, this could set off a new cycle of controversy.
What would be a real shock here is for Mr Abbas to declare the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority and force Israel to assume its responsibilities as an occupation power. Were this to occur, Mr Rouhani and Mr Abbas could turn the tables in a radical way. Otherwise, the Trump administration will dictate its Palestinian demands at UNGA and its Iranian demands at a UN Security Council session set to be chaired by Mr Trump.
His bilateral meetings will tackle other major international issues, topped by North Korea. Syria will be raised by foreign ministers, led by Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov. The issue of Yemen will be raised in speeches by various heads of states but UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has linked what happens in Yemen to the issue of Houthi rocket attacks targeting Saudi Arabia.
Mr Guterres held a press conference in which he spoke about ongoing crises and the prospects for resolving them, insisting that the UN was a necessity, not only politically but in areas like peacekeeping, development, youth and female empowerment. He addressed the need for more women to occupy senior posts in the international organisation to achieve gender equality. However, Mr Guterres has yet to appoint an Arab woman to a senior UN post. This undermines not just them but his image in the minds of women and girls yearning to fulfill their potential and achieve the global status they deserve.
World leaders start delivering their speeches on Tuesday. Many countries will be looking to see how they figure in Mr Trump’s discourse. US envoy to the UN Nikki Haley has said the main theme of her boss’s speech will be national sovereignty before multilateralism.
Mr Trump will not attack the leader of North Korea as he did at last year’s UNGA. He has opened a new, unexpected chapter with Kim Jong-un, achieving a breakthrough that has astonished friends and foes. Yet North Korea is not Mr Trump’s only radical achievement.
On China, for example, experts acknowledge that Mr Trump has broken with “business as usual”, forcing Beijing to face up to a new reality by pressuring its economy. Instead of confrontation, China has chosen to open more doors to encourage investors to remain after realising the seriousness of Mr Trump’s trade measures against it. Experts agree that Mr Trump’s endgame here is to strike new deals with China that would favour his country’s position.
Mr Trump’s critics are perplexed by Tehran’s rejection of calls by the US president for a meeting with its leaders. Some are wary of a possible US military adventure in Iran but the majority are aware that Mr Trump is seeking an adjusted deal rather than war. Mr Trump’s critics fear Iranian retaliation against his policies through the closure of waterways or terrorist attacks but his supporters dismiss this as fearmongering.
Everyone will be closely watching the UN Security Council meeting. Mr Trump will personally chair the session, which Ms Haley said would tackle Iranian sponsorship of terror and assaults on stability.
The Trump administration realised that such a session dedicated to discussing Iran would grant its representative the right to speak freely and at length – regardless of whether that representative is Mr Rouhani, foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif or an envoy. For this reason, the US decided to modify the purpose of the session to focus on proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles instead.
European leaders during this session are not going to opt for confrontation with the US president, as Iran would wish. However, there are clear differences of opinion. As for China, Iran is of critical importance in many areas, including in Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, so China is expected to reject the US position on Iran, with Russia likely to follow suit.
The most prominent absentee from UNGA will be Russian President Vladimir Putin. An unspoken matter, yet one that will haunt UN week, will be the issue of alleged collusion between Mr Trump and Russia in the US elections. The US president remains under close international and domestic scrutiny. The midterm elections will take place in little over a month and if Mr Trump’s party loses the House and the Senate majorities, the spectre of impeachment could loom closer and hold him back from acting decisively on the world stage.
The question is no longer what the US president wants but what should be done in light of what he wants