A new opportunity to bring Libya back from the abyss,
▶ Special envoy Ghassan Salame has the difficult job of reviving talks in a country split by militias and rival rulers
The UN General Assembly could not come at a more precarious time for Libya.
In the past month, more than 100 people were killed as Libyan state-sanctioned militias clashed with rivals in the capital Tripoli. A tenuous ceasefire agreed on September 4 was repeatedly broken, with at least 11 killed in clashes that broke out on Thursday. ISIS, meanwhile, is exploiting the chaos by launching attacks on state institutions.
Political progress has shuddered to a halt despite international efforts to bring about elections. A UN-backed government barely holds sway in Tripoli and is propped up by powerful, corrupt militias. The east of the country is controlled by Libya’s most powerful force, the Libyan National Army, which refuses to acknowledge the Tripoli government.
How much of this will be discussed, much less resolved, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly remains to be seen. The UN and its special envoy Ghassan Salame have previously tried and failed to unite Libya’s factions and bring about stability.
A separate peace effort was launched by French President Emmanuel Macron in May when he brought representatives from four of Libya’s largest factions together in Paris. They supposedly agreed to a December 10 election – but that deal already appears to have collapsed.
“The timing of the assembly is interesting. It is right when France must decide whether to take a step back from its initiative, which included having a constitutional basis for elections by September 16,” said Jalel Harchaoui, Libya expert at the University of Paris 8.
“Speaking to French officials, they say everything is fine and all is looking smooth. This is magical thinking. Will they stay like this or water down the rhetoric and try to see if a combination of efforts with countries such as Italy and the US can ensure a smooth transition?”
Although the UN backed the French talks, another important player, Italy, was angered by the intervention.
Italy accused France of pushing too hard for elections. France’s central role in the 2011 revolution that overthrew dictator Muammar Qaddafi was cited by Italy as a crucial reason for Libya’s instability and migration problem.
A Libyan politician who was present at the Paris summit said with the goodwill from that meeting having largely evaporated, the General Assembly could be vital for resetting the agenda.
“I think the assembly will push for two things. The UN needs to make their Libya mission one of peace, not just ‘support’. They could also move to reform the presidency council and look to elections in 2019,” the politician said.
Libya’s internationally recognised government in Tripoli is led by a nine-man presidency council, although four members have suspended their participation. Parliament has not accepted the unity government and relies on the militias to give it a semblance of maintaining security.
Threats to sanction these brigades or bring them under broader control have largely been empty. Karim Mezran, a North Africa expert at the Rafiq Hariri Centre for the Middle East said: “The Tripoli cartel is supposed to be the protectors of the presidency council. I would be surprised to see any of them being sanctioned.”
When Mr Salame took charge in June last year he was upbeat about being able to advance Libya’s stagnant political process. After extensive meetings with politicians, military leaders, tribal figureheads and civilians, he unveiled his UN action plan in September last year. The vision was based around a fair and inclusive process that could eventually restore a united government, central bank, army and parliament.
The action plan and Frenchled election efforts appear to have failed, something that even Mr Salame has conceded – but that does not mean his ideas will not be discussed in New York, Mr Mezran said.
“I imagine that the support for Mr Salame’s plan, especially a return to the first point of his action plan, will be central. That is how to move the political process without compromising the little equilibrium that exists,” he said.
“I think, and heard, that by returning to point one of the plan they mean the reduction of the presidency council to three members from the original nine and the appointment of an executive prime minister and cabinet to work with general support towards restoring a minimum of order and starting to rebuild the infrastructure,” Mr Mezran said.
However, a major stumbling block has always been Libya’s parliament. There are fears members could block reform.
“Time and time again, the House of Representatives has promised to produce referendum and election legislation. After three sessions dedicated to the referendum law, and numerous delays, the House of Representatives has failed to deliver this legislation. Those who have an interest in maintaining the status quo have spared no efforts to resist the needed change,” Mr Salame said on September 5.
The special envoy hinted at a change in tack when he said the chapter on the legislative process would close soon. “There are other ways to achieve peaceful political change,” he said.
“The reality is, if the UN really wanted to change up the presidency council, it could,” the Libyan politician at the Paris summit said.
“I don’t think [parliament] will be a limit in this, it will be overpassed by the UN,” Mr Mezran said.
Political progress has shuddered to a halt despite international efforts to bring about elections