RUSSIA CLIPS ISRAELI WINGS IN SYRIA’S OVERCROWDED AIRSPACE
▶ Supply of air defence systems to regime sends veiled warning but may bring more danger
Syria’s error in shooting down a Russian plane last week highlighted the chaotic picture in the war-torn country’s crowded airspace.
And things are about to get even more complicated.
Military aircraft from Syria, Russia, Israel and the US jostle for space on conflicting missions, and some airlines still use commercial passenger routes over the country.
With Russia now saying it will supply Damascus with radar-jamming technology and sophisticated air defences, the situation in the sky above Syria may become more dangerous.
Until recently, Russia, Israel and the US managed to avoid major incidents in Syrian airspace. But the fallout from the death of 15 Russian airmen by a Syrian-fired missile last Monday may yet test that relative calm.
Israeli F-16 planes struck Syrian government targets linked to Iranian interests in Latakia, as in previous missions. But this time a Russian surveillance plane was caught in the middle and was shot down by Syrian air defences.
Moscow said the F-16s had used the Russian plane as cover and initially blamed on Israel. It was the worst friendly fire incident between the two allies since Russia first intervened on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in 2015, and highlighted the dangers in so many unco-ordinated forces operating in the same space.
In response to the incident, Russia looks poised to bolster Syrian air defences in a way that could restrain Israeli strikes.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Monday that Russia would supply the Syrian army with the sophisticated S-300 air defence system, in addition to jamming radars of nearby warplanes.
“In regions near Syria over the Mediterranean Sea there will be radio-electronic suppression of satellite navigation, on-board radar systems and communication systems of military aviation attacking objects on Syrian territory,” Mr Shoigu said.
“We are convinced that the implementation of these measures will cool hotheads and prevent ill-considered action threatening our servicemen. Otherwise we will have to respond in line with the current situation.”
While Israel is no friend of Mr Al Assad, it retains mostly cordial relations with Moscow. The two countries have developed close relations on military and energy over the past decade.
Israel has been given a free rein by Moscow to carry out attacks in Syria, launching more than 200 strikes against Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah targets in the past 18 months.
But analysts believe Russia’s latest move is a pointed message to Israel that this arrangement is not unconditional. “The Russian air defences are a useful tool for Putin to remind [Israeli leader Benjamin] Netanyahu that Russia and not Israel is the greater power in Syria,” said Nicholas Heras, Middle East security fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.
“Russia is telling the Israelis that Israel’s blank cheque to strike Iran at will in Syria has been withdrawn for the time being, and that Israel needs to get the permission of Russia if it wants to conduct air raids in Assad’s domain. In effect, Russia is trying to clip Israel’s wings.”
Israel had convinced Moscow to stall delivery of the S-300 to Syria for years, saying it would threaten its ability to strike at Iranian interests.
Responding to the air defence delivery yesterday, Mr Netanyahu said: “We will continue to act to prevent Iranian military entrenchment in Syria and we will continue the military co-ordination between the Israel Defence Forces and the Russian army.”
The Russian Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia is home to an impressive array of military aircraft – more than 30 jets and planes, among them fifth-generation stealth Su-57s. Russia’s area of operations today is restricted to the last major rebel-held province of Idlib.
The US, meanwhile, is focused on east Syria, where it is fighting one of the last pockets of ISIS in the country. The two powers have stayed out of each other’s way thanks to a deconfliction channel and geographical distance.
Israel’s area of operations are more complicated and depend on the movement of Iran and its allies in Syria.
While the new air defence system is unlikely to present a major problem for the US, France or UK – which have carried out attacks against Syria in response to chemical weapons use – it does add another element to a complex web of interests and military hardware that could cause an international incident at the touch of a button.
“What is unusual for the Syrian airspace is that every now and then, combat aircraft from different countries not operating under the same co-ordination and possibly using different procedures and rules of engagement, operate in proximity of one another and civilian aircraft,” said David Cenciotti, editor at TheAviationist. com, which monitors civilian and military aircraft.
“Deconfliction hotlines have helped to avoid direct clashes but the risk of accidents remains.”
At the exact time the Russian plane was shot down, Moscow’s Defence Ministry said three civilian aircraft were passing through Syrian airspace, the closest of which was Middle East Airlines flight 430, which flies between Beirut and Dubai.
It was a few hundred kilometres away over the Syria-Jordan border.