ISTANBUL SUMMIT OFFERED LITTLE HOPE TO END SYRIA’S YEARS OF BLOODSHED
▶ Assad and the US were notably absent from talks aimed at ending a war entering its eighth year
A “complete ceasefire,” an “inclusive Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process” and “safe and voluntary return of refugees” were some of the phrases uttered by Turkish and European leaders at a summit in Istanbul on Saturday.
But the outcome of the Istanbul meeting, which was chaired by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and included Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, offered few practical solutions to end the bloody conflict, succeeding only in highlighting Washington’s absence and Europe’s greater involvement.
The talks came a month after Turkish shuttle diplomacy succeeded in temporarily halting a major offensive planned by Bashar Al Assad and backed by Moscow to reclaim rebel-held Idlib province.
Fears of a humanitarian catastrophe that would send a new influx of refugees into Turkey and Europe spurred a frantic effort to delay the battle, and those concerns are reflected in Paris and Berlin’s growing involvement.
Turkey already hosts more than three million refugees, while Germany has more than half a million.
Istanbul was billed as complementing the Astana peace talks led by Russia, Turkey and Iran and which eclipsed a UNled peace process.
But even Astana has failed in its attempts to halt the violence, despite the involvement of the powers with the greatest presence and influence in Syria.
Inch by inch, the Syrian government – backed by Russia’s air force and Iraniansupported militias – ousted the rebels from Aleppo, the Damascus suburbs and southern Syria, exiling opposition civilians and fighters to Idlib and gathering momentum for a military victory.
Europe has little leverage over the final outcome, save for a pledge that ties any reconstruction aid to a credible political process. However, European leaders are keen for a deal that allows refugees to return, despite the persecution they are likely to face at home.
Far from setting the stage for peace talks, however, the summit highlighted how little progress has been made.
At the summit, Mr Putin insisted that the Idlib ceasefire deal, which created a demilitarised zone on the province’s borders, was only a temporary measure, raising the prospect once again that Moscow may ultimately back a campaign to retake the region.
The creation of a constitutional committee meant to draft Syria’s postwar charter is frozen. UN envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura characterised the committee as a key concession from the Assad regime and vowed to make progress in appointing its members. These are supposed to include representatives from the regime and the opposition.
But Mr de Mistura was rebuffed by the Syrian government earlier this month, in a move that showed Mr Assad felt little need to compromise with the opposition or the international community amid his military victories.
The drafting of the constitution is supposed to pave the way for elections, steps that European leaders are insisting on – for now.
“There will be no real, sustainable, credible return of the refugees if the political process is not initiated,” Mr Macron said.
That political process is now in the hands of Russia, whose intervention in the war almost three years ago reversed its momentum when it looked like the government was teetering on the brink.
Without military backing and political cover from Russia, President Assad’s fate looked uncertain.
And without Russian pressure, Mr Assad sees little need to concede on any of the key pillars of the peace process touted by the other three powers in Istanbul.
The meeting, far from emphasising the multilateral nature of the peace efforts, served instead to highlight Russia’s primacy.
Mr Putin, rather than saying he would pressure the Syrian leader, said Moscow reserves the right to actively aid Mr Assad’s efforts to “eliminate this terror threat”.
Europe has little leverage over the final outcome, save for a pledge that ties reconstruction aid to a credible political process