Hezbollah Cabinet demand a blow to hopes for end of impasse
A last-minute demand from Hezbollah has again stalled the tortuous process for Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri in forming Lebanon’s next government.
After nearly six months of delays, largely over a battle between the Christian parties Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement, Mr Hariri had found a compromise.
At the start of the week, officials were optimistic that a final agreement would be announced within days.
But within hours of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea announcing that he had accepted a compromise in the share of seats given to the two parties, conceding ground to the Free Patriotic Movement founded by President Michel Aoun, Hezbollah posed a new conundrum.
The powerful militia and party is insisting that one of its Sunni allies be made a minister to reflect the result of an election in which Mr Hariri lost more than a third of his seats.
Mr Hariri had done better in May’s election than many pollsters expected after the change in voting laws to proportional representation by district rather than winner takes all.
“Our view is that their demand is just and we stand by them,” senior Hezbollah official Hussein Khalil said after a meeting with the group’s Sunni allies.
“I believe the problem of the representation of the independent Sunni MPs is not bigger than the problems that were solved.”
The demand puts Mr Hariri in a tough position. As head of the Future Movement, the largest majority Sunni party, he is nominally the political leader of his sect.
But with more Sunni parliamentary members who are not in his party and with strong competition from rival Sunni politicians in key districts including Tripoli, his claim to sectarian leadership is slipping.
Hezbollah’s demand would reinforce this in a very public way.
Mr Hariri has ruled out giving up one of his cabinet seats. A possible compromise would be for Mr Aoun to appoint one of the Hezbollah-allied Sunnis within a group of ministers named by the head of state. But that is also contentious.
While the Freedom party has been allied with Hezbollah since 2006, Mr Hariri has built a close relationship with its leader, Gebran Bassil, a legislator and Mr Aoun’s son-in-law.
Government posts in Lebanon are filled according to a strict sectarian system. The president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.
Posts in the Cabinet, this time expected to be 30 ministers, must be split equally between Christians and Muslims.
Hezbollah, listed as a terrorist group by the US, is tipped to take control of the Health Ministry, the most significant Cabinet post it has held, and to increase its number of ministers to three from two. This could also pose challenges to Lebanon’s relations with the West.
Faisal Karami, one of the Hezbollah-allied Sunni MPs, criticised Mr Hariri and his party.
“He wants to monopolise the entire Sunni sect for himself,” Mr Karami told LBC television. “Today the Future Movement no longer represents the absolute, overwhelming majority in the Sunni street.”
Rashed Fayed, a Future Movement official, said the demand by Hezbollah and its allies was sudden and contrived after months of discussions where it had not been mentioned.
“Saad Al Hariri will not let it pass,” Mr Fayed said.
Another source in the Hariri camp described the dispute as quite serious and said resolving it would take time.
The Al Mustaqbal daily, owned by Mr Hariri, yesterday questioned the motives behind Hezbollah’s sudden demands and suggested it was only intended as a jab at the prime minister-designate.
There is also another option for Mr Hariri – to resign. He threatened to step down as prime minister-designate this month to try to force the Christian Parties to compromise.
He has made clear that it is still an option. Responding to Hezbollah, Mr Hariri said if they were insistent they could “find someone else” to form a Cabinet.
After a glimmer of hope, Lebanon again faces an uncertain future.
The slow economy, hit by the cost of hosting more than a million Syrian refugees and a sharp drop in tourism and investment in recent years, threatens to slide further.
While the Central Bank keeps assuring markets that the Lebanese lira is stable, many experts do not expect that can last indefinitely in the current situation.
In April, the international community gathered in Paris for a conference to support Lebanon’s economy. The $11 billion ($40.4bn) in loans and grants for an economic plan led by Mr Hariri now depends on forming a government to approve projects and pass reforms.
But with his lack of options and Hezbollah not usually conceding on their demands, Lebanon could be on the brink of a long stand-off.
This could have a serious impact on the economy and ordinary people, but also on Mr Aoun’s presidency.