Democrat gains could curb Trump’s Middle East plans
▶ As polls suggest change in House of Representatives, Yemen, Iran and Palestine policies are open to scrutiny
The Trump administration is bracing for pressure from Democrats that could affect its Middle East policy agenda, with polls predicting that the Republicans will lose their majority in the US House of Representatives on Tuesday.
Democratic control of the House for the first time since 2010 could lead to investigations, subpoenas and endless hearings over the administration’s performance, including its record and policy direction in the Middle East.
Former US officials and experts who spoke to The National said Yemen, the Middle East peace process and policy towards Iran were the top three areas where the Democrats could apply extra scrutiny and oversight on the White House.
A change of party leadership in the House would also bring change at committees that deal with Middle East policy.
Democratic replacements to lead these panels include congressman Adam Smith for the House armed services committee, Eliot Engel for the foreign affairs committee, and Adam Schiff, a fierce critic of President Donald Trump, for the intelligence committee.
The result could complicate Mr Trump’s agenda in curbing Iran and in applying pressure on the Palestinians before the introduction of the US peace plan.
He would have to depend on Congressional help “to roll back Iran’s nuclear programme, maintain a US military presence in Syria, pressure and incentivise the Palestinians to come back to the negotiation table, and keep the relationship with Saudi Arabia on track”, said Daniel Shapiro of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
Mr Shapiro, who was ambassador to Israel under Barack Obama, said a Democratic House “will almost certainly demand an end to support for the Saudi campaign in Yemen and the restoration of some Palestinian assistance programmes”.
A Democratic majority could also be reluctant to help the administration put pressure on European allies to scrap the Iran deal, he said.
Mr Trump would have to “build bipartisan support in Congress for controversial foreign policy initiatives”, Mr Shapiro said.
But Matthew Brodsky, a senior fellow at the Security Studies Group in Washington DC, did not see the limits as having a crippling effect on Mr Trump’s Middle East policy.
“The constitution gives the executive branch and the president wide latitude to conduct foreign policy so that the US can be nimble and respond to challenges abroad,” Mr Brodsky said.
But he acknowledged that the Democrats could push for budget constraints and to increase pressure on Saudi Arabia, especially in limiting the US role in Yemen.
The secretaries of state and defence, Mike Pompeo and James Mattis, last week called for an end to hostilities in Yemen.
Senator Bernie Sanders has introduced a bill in Congress calling for a withdrawal of the US support role in Yemen.
But although House Democrats can censure the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, “they can’t stop the refuelling and ammunition delivery” from the US, said Barak Barfi of the New America foundation in Washington DC.
And while Democrats “cannot hold up nominees for presidential appointments in the defence and state departments, they have some arrows in their quiver”, Mr Barfi said.
Those include the power to issue subpoenas and hold hearings on controversial aspects of the administration’s policies, such as pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, he said.
Those arrows are on the minds of senior Trump officials. Bloomberg, Vanity Fair and CNN have all last week reported that senior US officials could leave their positions if the Democrats win the House.
Some of those expected to leave are Secretary of Interior Ryan Zinke, Attorney General Jeff Sessions and White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders.
Mr Trump has said that his defence chief may leave his post, but Mr Mattis has not indicated that he is on his way out.