Europe’s growing far right set for gains in EU vote next year

Far-right Eurosceptic parties are gaining ground in countries that once cradled the European Union.

This means the European parliamentary vote in May next year is shaping up to become a referendum on the choice between traditional conservative parties and emerging nationalist groups.

National polls – generally regarded as a fair indicator of likely voting in the EU election – point to a progressive shift towards more overtly Eurosceptic positions.

The French far-right party Ressemblement National, formerly known as the National Front, has moved ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s Republique en Marche for the first time with 21 per cent of voting preference, according to an Ifop poll on Sunday.

Similarly, Italy’s far-right League party has overtaken its government ally Five Star Movement, has risen over 30 per cent in a September poll.

Italians are the most unsatisfied with the EU, with one in two citizens voting in favour of an Italian Brexit, according to a Eurobarometer survey.

October projections for the next European elections put the far-right Europe of Nations and Freedom group – whose main growth drivers are Marine Le Pen’s RN and Matteo Salvini’s League – expanding its presence from 35 seats in 2014 to 51.

A second hard-right faction, the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy, has also been strengthened by the success of the German far-right AfD party in local elections and is likely to get up to 50 representatives.

According to Susi Dennison director of the European Power programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, “what the far-right is doing quite effectively right now is giving this semblance that they are a pan-European movement.

“You are not getting this same sense of mobilisation from pro-European groups.”

The two largest European groups are predicted to lose seats. The European People’s Party, which includes German Chancellor Angela Merkel among its leaders but also the controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is projected to retain its dominant position while following the downward spiral by conservative parties across Europe (from 215 seats in 2014 to 177).

If turnout to the European vote is similar to national elections across Europe, farright European parties would probably win about a third of the seats, Ms Dennison said.

This threshold is critical because it would allow far-right parties to take control of the processes and veto powers in the European parliament and could oppose, for example, actions against authoritarian governments in Poland and Hungary.

What could also tip the elections in favour of these parties is external meddling and misinformation, analysts said.