Report says diplomatic solution only way to prevent Yemen famine

As momentum builds for UN-sponsored peace talks, a new report argues that stopping the fighting in Yemen is the only way to prevent a devastating famine.

The report, by International Crisis Group, a conflict-monitoring NGO based in Brussels, was published on Wednesday.

It argues that Houthi rebels in Hodeidah “have a clear choice between agreeing to a negotiated exit from the port and joining a battle that would prove devastating to millions of people in territories currently under their control”.

After three years of fighting, eight million Yemenis are affected by food shortages.

UN officials say that 14 million people, or half the population, are at risk of famine.

More than 80,000 children have died of starvation in the past three years, according to Save the Children.

Attention is now squarely on the port city of Hodeidah – a lifeline for two thirds of Yemen’s population. The Arab Coalition says removing the Houthi rebels, who have held the port since 2015, either by force or a negotiated settlement, is critical to bring an end to the war and preventing a humanitarian catastrophe.

The ICG report points to a diplomatic solution as the only way to prevent widespread famine. Military operations are currently paused while such a solution to the war is pursued. UN envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths arrived in Sanaa on Wednesday to lay the groundwork for peace talks in Sweden.

The last attempted talks in Geneva in September failed after the Houthi delegation did not attend.

The ICG carried out fieldwork in Hodeidah and on three main front lines in September and October, interviewing Houthi rebels and pro-government forces.

The report said that, if pushed by a full-scale military assault on the city, the Houthis would probably dig in for an extended battle that would be devastating to the civilian population.

They have been preparing for a Hodeidah battle since late 2016 and have spent much of this year constructing defences, including barricades, trenches and, reportedly, a network of tunnels under the city, the report said.

The ICG found that the level of preparation as well as the Houthis’ zeal to keep hold of the city could pose a greater challenge for the coalition-backed forces than they may expect.

A concern raised by some analysts is that the Houthis may mine or destroy critical port infrastructure during a battle to prevent further shipments of aid entering the country rather than allow the coalition to retake it.

Coalition and UN aid shipments continue to dock at the site although the number has decreased in recent weeks. There are also thousands of civilians trapped in the city.

The Arab Coalition says that one option to mitigate the humanitarian effect of fighting in Hodeidah would be to move humanitarian supplies and food through alternative routes. However, the report said it was “far from clear whether the current humanitarian programme can be scaled up any further”.

Instead, the report calls for the UN Security Council to urgently pass the resolution under consideration calling for a cessation of hostilities in and around Hodeidah.

International stakeholders should facilitate the transfer of the port to the UN, the ICG argued. The Arab Coalition said it would be amenable to this proposal but so far the Houthis have not consented to withdraw from Hodeidah and hand over control of the port.

Analysts are concerned the Houthis may mine or destroy port infrastructure in Hodeidah during a battle