LEADERSHIP CONTEST PUTS BREXIT IN JEOPARDY
▶ Second referendum chances rise as clock ticks down to deadline
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s last argument for holding on to the job boils down to the plea that the closing Brexit deadline means there is no time to change leadership.
After more than a year of negotiations with Brussels, Mrs May unveiled a deal last month to manage the British withdrawal from the bloc in March.
The strength of the rebellion against the agreement caught Mrs May off guard.
After promising a parliamentary vote on the deal on Tuesday, she was forced to delay the debate and fly to European capitals looking for new concessions.
Rebuffed in Amsterdam, Berlin and Brussels, she flew home on Tuesday night to find that her own MPs had forced a confidence vote on her leadership.
Whatever the outcome, the vote is a defining moment for Brexit.
“The Prime Minister has come out fighting and warned that if she is toppled it risks chaos,” said Will Walden, who works for the Edelman advisory group but was a former aide to Mrs May’s rival, Boris Johnson.
“But in pulling the Commons vote on her Brexit deal at the last minute on Monday, she almost certainly accelerated opposition to her leadership and made a challenge more likely.
“That challenge has now come and by this evening we will at least know if she has won or lost the vote.”
Without a deal that parliament accepts, Britain is on course for a hard landing in less than four months.
Many of Mrs May’s cabinet colleagues sought to rally support with a warning that a leadership election would reopen the overall Brexit project.
Jeremy Hunt, the Foreign Secretary, warned MPs on Twitter about the effect of a leadership contest.
“My sincere request to colleagues: Brexit is not guaranteed and the British people will not forgive us if we fail to deliver it,” Mr Hunt wrote.
“All those who want to stop it are praying for a Conservative leadership contest. So don’t take the risk.”
Other cabinet colleagues added to the air of uncertainty. Liam Fox, the International Trade Secretary and ardent Brexiteer, warned that even if Mrs May prevailed her deal may be dead.
“It is very difficult to support the deal if we don’t get changes to the backstop,” Mr Fox said. “I don’t think we will get through. I’m not even sure if the Cabinet will agree for it to be put to the House of Commons.”
Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission told Mrs May he had nothing better to offer when she met him on Tuesday.
“This is the best deal possible for Britain, this is the best deal possible for Europe,” Mr Juncker said. “This is the only deal possible.”
Leo Varadkar, the Irish Prime Minister, told Parliament in Dublin that senior European leaders were reviewing their position.
“I’ll be taking a call with President Juncker later on today to see what assurances we can give the UK Parliament that might assist them to ratify the withdrawal agreement,” Mr Varadkar said.
The two Brexit secretaries who quit Mrs May’s government having failed to secure a more friendly deal unveiled an alternative yesterday.
David Davis and Dominic Raab said they would support a decade-long extendable freetrade agreement that would ensure free movement continued across the Irish border.
Philip Blond, a director of the think tank ResPublica, told The
National that the leadership challenge and the failure to pass the deal with Brussels increased the likelihood of a second referendum.
“We’re heading for a second referendum because I cannot see any middle deal that May might generate passing parliament,” Mr Blond said.
“Unless she can get Europe to shift on the backstop [to keep the Northern Irish border open]there is no middle option available”.