PLAN FOR SYRIAN REPATRIATIONS STYMIED BY LACK OF WESTERN CASH
▶ Moscow expected international financial backing that didn’t materialise to return Syrian refugees from Lebanon
A Russian plan to repatriate Syrian refugees living in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey has not eventuated because of a lack of western funding, Lebanese officials say.
Moscow’s proposal in July to work with Washington and Damascus to help repatriate Syrians in neighbouring countries drew concern from refugees and the UN.
Russia expected the US and EU to provide funds, but both have consistently shied away from supporting repatriation without a political solution to the war in Syria, Lebanese officials said.
Russia is ready to supply logistical and material help but is not prepared to fund the project, the officials said. Cost estimates have not been made public.
“A massive return is not possible without large-scale investment in Syria, as well as political reforms,” said Yury Barmin of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank sponsored by the Kremlin.
Whether Russia can convince Syrian President Bashar Al Assad to introduce political reforms that would lead to foreign funding remains to be seen. But analysts in Moscow say the outlook is bleak.
“Good governance is something Russia could help with but larger problems, like the influence of the security services on everyday life and Iran’s influence, will be hard for Russia to change,” Mr Barmin said.
Russia started lobbying for a repatriation plan in July, when it suggested to the US that the two countries co-operate. But the proposal received an little interest from Washington.
This did not discourage Russian presidential envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, who a short time later flew to Lebanon and Jordan to discuss the plan.
Mr Lavrentiev was welcomed with open arms by Lebanese politicians who regularly complain about the burden posed by Syrian refugees living in the country – the highest number of refugees per capita in the world.
How Russia wanted to organise the return of the 1.6 million Syrian refugees living in Lebanon and Jordan was unclear at the time. But Col Gen Mikhail Mizintsev, head of the Russian National Defence Management Centre, announced that working groups were heading to Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, where joint headquarters led by local Russian ambassadors were to be set up by July 30.
After a meeting between top Lebanese officials, including prime minister-designate Saad Hariri, a Lebanese-Russian joint committee was created to follow up on the plan.
The committee has met three times since it was created last summer, said Amal Abou Zeid of the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who is on the panel with three of his country’s other officials.
Russia’s plan may not have moved forward but large numbers of Syrian refugees have started returning home without help from Moscow.
Jordan says that about 28,000 Syrians left voluntarily since the border between the two countries reopened in midOctober.
Lebanese intelligence started co-ordinating returns with the Syrian authorities and said that 80,000 Syrians went home between July and last month.
The Russian repatriation plan seems to have been put on the back burner but Lebanese officials are trying to remain optimistic.
“It’s the only initiative we have on the table that is worth pursuing,” said Nadim Munla, special adviser to Mr Hariri on refugee affairs.
He said that European leaders were beginning to warm to the idea of financing the return of refugees, especially after the Istanbul summit in October between the leaders of Turkey, Russia, France and Germany.
“Although the initial reaction to the Russian initiative was not very positive from the international community, we noticed a re-activation of this initiative after the Istanbul summit,” Mr Munla said.
“The Europeans accepted making available some financial resources as long as it was not classified as the reconstruction of Syria but as the reintegration of refugees back in their villages and cities.”
But the US is still reticent, Mr Munla said.
Ghadi Khoury, a director at the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, played down the European change in attitude.
“From what I understand,
A massive return is not possible without large-scale investment in Syria, as well as political reforms YURY BARMIN Russian International Affairs Council
there was a small change in position from the German and French leaders,” Mr Khoury said.
“But donor countries will not move ahead as long as the Geneva process is not seriously undertaken.”
Germany’s embassy in Beirut did not respond to a request for comment.
The French embassy referred to President Emmanuel Macron’s comments in Istanbul in which he stressed there would be no refugee return as long as a “political process had not been undertaken as these refugees massively fled, above all, abuse committed by the [Syrian] regime”.
The UN High Commission for Refugees is not organising returns but it assists refugees when they ask for help.
“At some point we will do so but we are still discussing certain topics with the Syrian government, such as access to refugees once they return, military service and property rights,” said Mireille Girard, head of the UN agency in Lebanon.
But Lebanese officials said they could not wait until major powers decided that the time had come for mass returns.
“The presence of Syrians in the country costs us $1.7 billion [Dh6.24bn] a year according to the central administration of statistics,” Mr Abou Zeid said.
“We cannot keep on waiting until there is a political solution in Syria.”