US president is willing to play hardball with Ankara

US President Donald Trump’s threat to devastate Turkey economically if it attacked America’s Kurdish partners exposes the growing tension between the Nato allies over the conflict in Syria.

The tweet was a stark change in tone from three weeks ago, when the White House hailed the US-Turkish strategic partnership and said that Mr Trump was open to a visit to Turkey this year.

It also undermined perceptions of friendly relations between Mr Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spoke on the phone at least twice last month to discuss a US pull-out from Syria and increased trade.

But more than anything, by threatening economic sanctions on Turkey, Mr Trump is signalling that he is willing to play hardball with Mr Erdogan to try to extract concessions and protect US allies in Syria, analysts say.

The shift on Sunday follows a gradual softening by Mr Trump and his administration over an exit from Syria.

What was at first portrayed as an imminent Syria withdrawal is now being cast by members of his administration as a long process that will rely on the defeat of ISIS and securing guarantees by Ankara that it will not attack America’s Kurdish partners.

But Turkey has resisted the new conditions, which Mr Erdogan has described as a grave mistake. Sunday’s threat is similar to the one Mr Trump made and executed last summer after Turkey arrested US pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges related to the failed 2016 military coup.

Mr Brunson was released in October after spending two years in jail mainly because the US vowed to lift crippling sanctions on two Turkish ministers.

It also increased tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium, which it imposed on Ankara in the summer amid growing frustration over his case.

Mr Brunson’s case, analysts say, should stand as an example that Ankara could pay a great cost if it angered the US, considering the sanctions and raised tariffs helped push the Turkish lira to a record low in August.

“Mr Trump has proven that he is willing to play hardball with Mr Erdogan,” said Aykan Erdemir, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies.

Mr Erdemir said Mr Trump knew that the Turkish economy was heading into a recession this year and that Mr Erdogan would need a large International Monetary Fund bailout after March’s local elections.

In that context, Mr Trump “assumes that the incentives and disincentives he has at his disposal will discourage Mr Erdogan from taking unilateral action that could jeopardise Washington’s Syrian Kurdish partners”, the analyst said.

While Mr Trump could increase tariffs on Turkey or use unilateral sanctions again, the move could backfire, said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The US can impose sanctions on Turkey and add tariffs like it did this summer,” Mr Cook said. “Mr Trump’s bluster is enough to rattle Turkish markets.”

But he gave a warning that such sanctions would have real consequences for Turkey and Europe, and could probably encourage Ankara to take action against the Kurds.

“Mr Brunson was a hostage,” Mr Cook said. “The Kurds in Syria represent an existential problem.”

Mr Trump’s threat could also be a message to his domestic audience. Nicholas Heras of the Centre for New American Security said the US president was “trying to signal to his domestic critics that the truth of the matter is that he is in control over Syria policy and that he understands the stakes that are raised by his decisions”.

Threatening the Turkish economy is “his ace in the hole” said Mr Heras, “at a time when Mr Erdogan is trying to hold on to power”.

The threat is also a message to members of Mr Trump’s own party who accuse him of being weak on Turkey and taking cues from Ankara over the situation in Syria.

Mr Trump announced his decision to leave Syria only five days after his call with Mr Erdogan on December 14, leading many to suggest that the Turkish president was the main force driving the decision.

By shifting his position now, Mr Trump, “a self-styled master negotiator, is telling the Turkish President and the Republican audience that he is calling their bluff”, Mr Heras said.