DRC ELECTION CRISIS RUMBLES ON AS REGIONAL BLOC CALLS FOR A RECOUNT
▶ Tshisekedi accused of striking deal for power with departing president
Days after Felix Tshisekedi’s shock victory in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s much-delayed and disputed election, an influential regional body has called for a recount.
The Southern African Development Community, the region’s answer to the GCC, demanded the recount “to provide the necessary reassurance to winners and losers”.
It follows two weeks of political crisis since the country voted on December 30, sparking fears of violence that could destabilise the wider region. France and the US have already sent troops to the region.
Regional conflict is nothing new to the country. A 1997-2002 civil war in the mineral-rich nation spread to neighbouring states and killed five million people.
Last Thursday, the country’s much-maligned electoral commission said Mr Tshisekedi – the son of a fearless opposition leader – won the December vote. Pre-election polls put him 20 points behind main opposition candidate Martin Fayulu, a former oil tycoon.
The result shocked both men and international observers, who had feared the election would be rigged in favour of Emmanuel Shadary, departing president Joseph Kabila’s choice of successor. Mr Shadary came a distant third.
Mr Tshisekedi’s win should be cause for celebration and mark the first democratic transition of power in the country since Patrice Lumumba became prime minister in 1960, after independence from Belgium.
But Lumumba’s removal and murder four months later was an early indicator of the ferocity and dysfunction of the country’s politics.
Mr Kabila ruled since 2001, after his father, who had been president of the country since 1997, was assassinated.
Many Congolese now believe Mr Kabila, 47, struck a deal with Mr Tshisekedi to keep Mr Fayulu out of power. Mr Kabila was due to step down in 2016 but delayed elections repeatedly, sparking protests that killed dozens.
“The very low levels of support for the ruling party’s candidate, Mr Shadary, would have made it very difficult for the ruling elite to rig it in his favour, which forced Mr Kabila to make a ‘plan B’ with Mr Tshisekedi,” said Thomas Murphy, intelligence analyst at Risk Advisory.
The accusation was bolstered by the country’s influential Catholic Church, one of the country’s only functioning institutions, which sent 40,000 election monitors to polling booths last month.
The church has claimed its data conflicts with the results and has called for the rightful winner to be declared, without naming Mr Fayulu.
An opinion poll published on December 28 by New York’s Congo Research Group indicated that 44 per cent of the electorate supported Mr Fayulu, but official results put him on 34.8 per cent, slightly below Mr Tshisekedi’s 38.6 per cent.
On Saturday, Mr Fayulu filed a petition to the country’s highest court and will hear back within eight days. But Kabila loyalists fill the court.
“Mr Fayulu’s only window is international support, which is now not enough to change the course of events,” said JeanClaude Maswana, a Congolese Economist in Tokyo.
Over the weekend the coalition of parties backing Mr Kabila, who retains loose control over the judiciary and the military, won a majority in the 500-seat legislative assembly.
This makes Mr Tsishekedi “a lame duck president”, unable to implement reforms that Mr Kabila and the ruling elite dislike, Mr Murphy said.
Mr Maswana said: “Mr Kabila traded the presidency for parliament with Mr Tshisekedi.”
Today, the country, with a population of 80 million, has rampant corruption, sexual violence, malnutrition, and constant conflict, despite vast mineral resources, including cobalt, a vital component in smartphones and electric cars.
An Ebola outbreak before the election led Mr Kabila to exclude more than one million voters. So far, Mr Fayulu has been quiet and the situation remains relatively calm. But that could change quickly.
“If the court does dismiss Mr Fayulu’s petition, which we think is the most likely outcome, we anticipate that he will probably call on his backers to protest,” Mr Murphy said.
“The security forces tend to respond to any protests with force, including teargas and, on some occasions, live rounds.”