CAIRO ASSESSES ITS OPTIONS AS LIBYA CONFLICT FLARES

▶ A contentious maritime deal between Tripoli and Ankara threatens to deepen the conflict

Tension is building in the Eastern Mediterranean over Libya, with an escalation of hard-line rhetoric that could lead to even more violence in the troubled North African country.

The latest chapter in Libya’s chaotic history began with the leader of the government in Tripoli, Fayez Al Sarraj, signing joint defence and maritime demarcation agreements with Ankara.

But the deal sparked consternation across the Mediterranean from Athens to Cairo, , and has angered Libyan Speaker of Parliament Aqilah Saleh who said the deal is unacceptable.

Egypt has accused Turkey of supporting militants and fomenting unrest in the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last Thursday that his country could send troops to fight alongside the Tripoli government’s allied militias as early as next month in the battle for Libya’s capital.

The Libyan National Army, backed by the eastern administration in Benghazi, launched an offensive in April to capture Tripoli and end what it called the rule of the militias.

However, the fighting has become a lengthy stand-off with neither side showing the military clout for a decisive win.

Bloomberg reported last Friday

that Ankara would send an ethnic Turkmen rebel group from north-east Syria, as well as the Turkish navy, to defend Tripoli while the Turkish military would provide support.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, who led the 2013 removal of a Turkish-backed and divisive Islamist president, has made it clear his country would not tolerate “illegitimate foreign interference” in neighbouring Libya. This month he said he had no intention of sending troops to bolster the LNA but left the door open for Cairo to increase logistical and training support for the LNA and possibly increase aerial support.

Imad Hussein, the editor of Al Shorouk, an independent Cairo newspaper close to the government, said that any direct military involvement by Egypt in Libya would create a quagmire similar to Cairo’s intervention in Yemen in the 1960s.

But Nabil Fahmy, a former Egyptian foreign minister who now heads a think tank in Cairo, wrote in Al Masry Al Youm that Mr Erdogan’s latest moves “have doubled the chances of military operations and clashes” in Libya.

Mohammed Anis Salem, a retired UN diplomat and now a member of the Egyptian Council of Foreign Relations, also said Egypt must avoid becoming involved in a drawn-out conflict in Libya. “There has to be a diplomatic initiative that engages and contains Turkey and the National Accord government in Tripoli,” he said.

“But there are red lines, too. Egypt cannot allow a significant Turkish military presence in Libya that upsets the military balance in the area or negatively impacts on Egypt’s security.”

Mr El Sisi has tried to rally support to contain the issue, discussing Libya with several foreign leaders, including US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Presidential readouts of these talks reveal little about their substance, but their language suggests Egypt is prepared to take action to prevent Turkey from gaining ground in Libya.

Egypt has another key interest in foiling Turkish plans in the eastern Mediterranean.

Ankara’s maritime agreement with Tripoli’s government, dismissed as illegal by Cairo, expanded Turkey’s continental shelf, infringing on Egypt’s plans with Cyprus, Greece and Israel to turn the region into a global energy hub after the discovery of natural gas.

Turkey was unhappy to be left out of these plans and has been trying to force itself into the initiative, looking for gas off the shores of Cyprus.

The EU sanctioned Turkey for drilling near Cyprus.