Can UAE reach herd immunity by end of year?

▶ Protection against Covid-19 in 2021 could still be achieved in certain nations, but not globally

Earlier this week, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, encouraged all citizens and residents of the UAE to get vaccinated to “help us end this pandemic”. The country’s leadership is making clear the direct line between inoculation and speeding up the nation’s post-pandemic recovery and that UAE public officials believe that an end to Covid-19’s grip on our lives – at least in the Emirates – is in sight.

Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. As of yesterday, 1,364,580 shots have been administered. The country is second globally in the number of vaccines administered for every 100 people. Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, said: “We hope that with vaccinations picking up pace, we will reach the point of full recovery in the shortest possible time.” That is the hope we all share and for which we must strive.

Yet, pace of progress in an individual nation does not match global rates.

On Monday, the World Health Organisation said that worldwide herd immunity would not be achieved this year. Surging global rates form part of this estimation. Other reasons given by the UN agency’s chief scientist, Soumya Swaminathan, include limited access to vaccines in developing countries, false scepticism some hold over vaccine safety, and the threat posed by the virus mutating into more contagious forms, possibly ones that render vaccines less effective.

Any inoculation programme takes time. Nonetheless, many governments who knew even in the early days of the pandemic that vaccines would come failed to prepare logistically for a swift introduction. There has also been a global inability to develop strategies to keep up pace with misinformation and conspiracy theories about the safety of vaccines.

The speed of vaccine development during this pandemic has been unprecedented. But this win does not guard against inevitable setbacks. Yesterday, researchers in Brazil published a study showing that the CoronoVac shot, a mainstay of the country’s inoculation programme, is only 50 per cent effective.

Even in nations ahead on vaccination, cases are rising. Israel, which leads the field in inoculating its citizens, is experiencing a surge in infections that it blames on the arrival of the more infectious UK variant of Covid-19 in the country. On Tuesday, the UAE recorded 3,243 new cases of the virus, the first time since the beginning of the pandemic that the nation exceeded 3,000 daily cases. Yesterday, the number was 3,362. While these numbers are lower than in other countries, it highlights the fact that the acceleration of vaccination campaigns does not yet mean the fight against Covid-19 is over.

Stressing this simple point consistently should remain central in public messaging the world over. Even in nations where herd immunity in 2021 remains possible, people must not lose discipline and jeopardise recent progress. Hand-washing, maintaining social distancing and wearing face masks in public remain as important as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.