Blinken says all Nato troops in Afghanistan should leave together
▶ Former Afghan intelligence chief expects insurgents to seek new deal with Washington
Nato troops should leave Afghanistan together, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, a day after it was announced that American soldiers would withdraw by September 11.
“I am here to work closely with our allies, with the [Nato] secretary general, on the principle that we have established from the start: in together, adapt together and out together,” Mr Blinken said at the headquarters of the alliance in Brussels.
He said Washington wanted a co-ordinated pullback from Afghanistan, where about 2,500 US soldiers are part of a 9,600-strong Nato mission.
“Together, we went into Afghanistan to deal with those who attacked us and to make sure that Afghanistan would not again become a haven for terrorists who might attack any of us,” Mr Blinken said alongside Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“Together, we have achieved the goals that we set out to achieve. And now, it is time to bring our forces home.
“We will work very closely together in the weeks and months ahead on a safe, deliberate and co-ordinated withdrawal of our forces from Afghanistan.”
Germany’s defence minister said Nato was likely to follow the US in withdrawing all combat troops from Afghanistan by September.
A UK government representative said: “We are working closely with the US, Nato allies and partners to support a secure and stable Afghanistan. For there to be any chance of a lasting peace, the Taliban must engage meaningfully in a dialogue with the Afghan government. Any change to our security presence will be made in agreement with allies and after consultation with our partners.”
The foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany and the US held talks yesterday about Afghanistan, tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border and the Iran nuclear deal.
The Taliban pulled out of negotiations with the Afghan government next week, making the announcement hours after the US said it would withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by September 11.
The withdrawal will begin before the May 1 deadline agreed to last year as part of the Trump administration’s talks with the Taliban, but US forces may be out of the country before the latest deadline.
The insurgent group responded to the US announcement on Tuesday by withdrawing from talks with the government scheduled for April 24. The meeting was to take place in Istanbul.
Taliban spokesman Muhammad Naeem said the insurgents would not participate in negotiations “until all foreign forces completely withdraw from our homeland”.
Analysts were not surprised by the announcement. The Taliban issued several statements in recent weeks in which the insurgents said they would not compromise on the agreement struck with the US last year.
But the US government, now led by President Joe Biden, said on several occasions that it would not meet the deadline agreed to in the deal.
“American policies are driven by many domestic and international factors,” said Rahmatullah Nabil, former Afghan intelligence chief.
Nato member nations, including Germany and the UK, expressed their intention to take their troops out of Afghanistan alongside the US. Germany has 1,300 troops in Afghanistan and the UK has 750.
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday to discuss the withdrawal.
Mr Blinken said that Nato “achieved the goals that we set out to achieve” and “it is time to bring our forces home”.
But Mr Nabil does not believe Afghanistan talks have collapsed entirely and he expects the insurgents to attempt to renegotiate with the US, with Pakistan acting as mediator.
“The Americans want to give concessions to the Taliban in return for the extension of the withdrawal timeline,” he said.
Jonathan Schroden, a research programme director at the CNA think tank in the US, said it was likely that Washington and the Taliban would hold further discussions.
“I find it more likely that they will re-engage at some point, because that’s required by the US-Taliban agreement, which remains the path to getting two more things that the Taliban want: the release of the rest of their prisoners and sanctions relief,” he said.
But some Afghan officials were relieved the US extended the withdrawal deadline because it allows the Afghan government time to use diplomatic and political tools in the face of flailing talks.
One official told The National that the government would make the best of the situation.
“It gives the government some more time, but maybe not enough, to build pressure on Taliban and Pakistan to agree to a ceasefire,” the official said.
But the Taliban may increase the level of violence in Afghanistan instead.
“The Taliban’s actions to date have made it quite clear that they see violence as their primary lever for exerting pressure on the government alongside negotiations,” Mr Schroden said.
“I don’t see any reason to believe they will change their view on that just because the US is withdrawing.”
Mr Nabil said a lack of coordination within the group, particularly between its fighters and political office, contributed to the chaos.
The insurgents said US forces could be the targets of further violence if they remained in Afghanistan beyond May 1.
“If the agreement is breached and foreign forces fail to exit our country on the specified date, problems will certainly be compounded and those who failed to comply with the agreement will be held liable,” said Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid.
Mr Schroden said he expected the US to hit back if foreign forces were attacked as they withdrew.
The fighting in Afghanistan is also hitting civilians hard and a UN report published yesterday said there was a 29 per cent increase in civilian casualties in the first three months of the year. More than 43 per cent of those casualties were blamed on the insurgents.
“I fear it will get worse before it’s better,” Mr Schroden said.
The UN says there was a 29 per cent increase in civilian casualties in Afghanistan in the first three months of the year
Speaking to The National at her child’s grave in Kabul, Wahida Shirzad, 38, lamented: “No matter what happens in Afghanistan – whether there is war or peace – no one will be able to bring back my son.” Mohammad Rahid Amin was one of 22 students killed when terrorists stormed Kabul University in November 2020.
The attack typifies the danger and heartache that Afghans have lived with for decades. Despite a 20-year US-led war, the Taliban, the main killers of innocent Afghans, seem to be winning. American talks with the group over the past year gave the terrorists far more than they granted in return. Throughout, the concerns of Afghanistan’s government were largely marginalised.
Now, the very future of the administration in Kabul is in doubt, after US President Joe Biden announced that he is withdrawing all 2,500 American troops from the country by September 11, without conditions. Soldiers from other Nato countries are expected to leave along with them. Mr Biden’s chosen date is the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US. Shortly after Al Qaeda’s attack, the US toppled a Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which was hosting the terrorist group.
The decision will end the longest war in US history. But it will not necessarily finish Afghanistan’s war, which is increasingly becoming one of civil strife. Its conclusion will not see an end to the group’s resurgence in areas the Afghan National Army and its international allies worked to liberate. Nor will it reassure those who justifiably fear a Taliban takeover.
Winding down military support does not stop Mr Biden’s duty of care towards Afghanistan. After two decades of deep involvement in the country’s security, government and development, there is no such thing as a responsible clean break.
America is leaving with a mixed legacy and mixed feelings from Afghans.
It is possible that Washington will not abide by the September timetable. An initial May deadline for withdrawal set by former president Donald Trump was overturned by Mr Biden when he entered office, and this was not the first time the US rescinded decisions in Afghanistan. But no one can bank on a second U-turn. An increasing number of American citizens and politicians are pushing for an end to “forever wars”. For them, Afghanistan is the definition of one.
In the face of this, the government in Kabul must quickly form a united front against the Taliban and other militia groups that threaten Afghanistan. But it will still need the US to fulfil its own responsibilities. If American troops go, they must be replaced with a generous supply of military aid. Without it, the country will be overrun.
The West has occasionally been rocked by terrorist attacks in recent years, some from groups that operate in Afghanistan. For Afghans, the tragedy is not occasional. In the first three months of 2021, their country saw almost 600 civilians killed.
Afghanistan remains vulnerable. But so will the West, if along with its soldiers, it also withdraws its sense of responsibility.