Incident at Iranian nuclear site could lead to escalation, experts say

Iran’s promise of revenge for alleged sabotage at its Natanz nuclear site could cause serious escalation, but Tehran will probably seek to avoid casualties, analysts told The National.

Any lethal response against Israel, which Iran blames for the sabotage, could cause a crisis, they said. Iran said it will begin enriching uranium to 60 per cent purity in response to the incident, and maritime risk analysts at Dryad Global said an Israeli ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday evening.

The report could not be verified and the ship’s owner, Ray Shipping, said that the vessel had suffered no damage.

Natanz is Iran’s primary uranium-enrichment site, and houses its advanced IR-9 centrifuges.

It was seriously damaged on Sunday when its power supply was destroyed by what Iran says was an explosive device.

It is thought that the attack set back Iran’s “breakout time” – the time required to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb – by nine months.

“In terms of a counter move, Iran has options in the Strait of Hormuz,” said Dean Mikkelsen, a cyber and maritime security analyst who has worked with oil companies in Iraq. “Iran does repeat things – potentially a limpet mine attack again in the Arabian Sea, the confiscation of another ship in the strait or near disputed islands.

“Cyber attacks are also possible. Iran and Israel have done tit-for-tat cyber attacks against each other in the past.”

Samuel Ramani, a commentator and Middle East specialist at the University of Oxford, agreed.

“Iran could respond with a cyber attack on Israel’s water system. In that scenario, Israel will likely urge US officials to delay a swift return to the nuclear deal negotiations,” he said.

Iran was accused of placing limpet mines on the Israeli commercial vessel Helios Ray on February 28.Joe Truzman, an analyst with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said past Iranian actions showed calculated caution.

“They likely could have sunk the ships targeted in previous months, like the Helios,” he said. “But they chose not to. Perhaps they don’t want to get into a conflict with Israel because they’ve already estimated such an attack would spur the Israelis into retaliating strongly.”

In May 2018, Iranian operatives were blamed for firing missiles into Israel over the disputed Golan Heights. Israel’s retaliation in Syria saw some of the heaviest air strikes of the conflict. “Iran knows that it can’t afford to get itself into an all out conflict with Israel under sanctions,” Mr Truzman said.

Sima Shine, head of the Iran programme at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran’s poor economic situation may hamper its ability to retaliate, but there would be an escalation if it does so.

“If it’s direct, vis-a-vis Israel, will there be any casualties? Because if that happens, probably Israel will retaliate,” she said. “This can start a slippery slope of escalation between the two countries.”

Israel’s supporters and others see the attack as an effort to weaken Iran’s hand and strengthen the US’ bargaining position at nuclear deal talks in Vienna, said Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

“The recent attacks have certainly delivered significant short-term damage to Iran’s key nuclear facilities. I think we can expect Iran to certainly try to retaliate in some fashion soon,” Mr Ibish said.

“The shadow war that has developed in a deniable ‘grey zone’ between Israel and Iran is clearly driven by regional competition and conflicts.”

He said that “successful talks between the US and Iran would make the Iranian-Israeli shadow war unnecessary and undesirable”.

“The current flare-up is strongly linked to the effort to renew talks between Washington and Tehran,” Mr Ibish said. “Israel’s critics, especially Iran, accuse Israel of trying to sabotage negotiations, even though Iranian clients in Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere have also been on the attack recently.”

Natanz is Iran’s primary uranium-enrichment site and home to its advanced IR-9 centrifuges