Taliban leader ‘favours political settlement’ to Afghan conflict as violence continues

The leader of the Taliban has said he favours a political settlement to the conflict in Afghanistan as the group carries out widespread violence.

Representatives of the Afghan government held a new round of talks with the insurgents in Doha at the weekend, raising hopes that peace talks may be revived.

Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada said yesterday that “in spite of the military gains and advances” the group “strenuously favours a political settlement” to the violence.

The Taliban will take “every opportunity for the establishment of an Islamic system, peace and security that presents itself”, he said.

For months, the two sides have met on and off in the Qatari capital, but little has so far been achieved.

The discussions appeared to have lost momentum as the insurgents made gains on the battlefield.

Mr Akhundzada said the group was committed to negotiating an end to the war but criticised “the opposition parties” for “wasting time”.

“Our message remains that instead of relying on foreigners, let us resolve our issues among ourselves and rescue our homeland from the prevailing crisis,” he said.

The Taliban have taken advantage of the withdrawal of troops from foreign countries, including the US, to launch a series of offensives across large parts of the country.

The group is now believed to control about half of the more than 400 districts in Afghanistan, as well as several border crossings.

The group has also laid siege to several provincial capitals.

The Taliban have long appeared to be united, operating under an effective chain of command and carrying out complex campaigns, despite rumours of splits among their leadership.

Questions remain over how firm a hand the Taliban’s leaders have with commanders and whether they will be able to convince their fighters to abide by a potential agreement.

Notably, Mr Akhundzada made no mention of a formal ceasefire for Eid Al Adha.

Many people in Afghanistan planned to hold subdued celebrations during the holiday.

Abdullah, a resident of the eastern city of Jalalabad, said his family would not follow the tradition of slaughtering sheep or goats.

“It’s because the situation of our country is not good. The fighting is ongoing. We are concerned,” he said.

“People are poor and most of them are worried about the increase in violence.”

Over the years, the Taliban have announced a series of short ceasefires during holidays, moves that initially spurred hopes that the level of violence in the country would reduce.

But the group has been criticised for using the breaks in the fighting to resupply militants, allowing them to launch onslaughts on Afghanistan’s security forces.

The US-led military coalition had been in Afghanistan for about two decades following an invasion that began after the 9/11 attacks.

All American forces are scheduled to withdraw from the country by September 11.

Fears are growing that Afghan forces will be overwhelmed without the air support provided by coalition forces.

That could lead to a complete Taliban takeover or the start of a civil war in a country awash with weapons after about 40 years of fighting.

On Saturday, Spin Boldak, a key crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan partially reopened, days after the Taliban took control of the border town.

Pakistan shut the crossing when the militants captured it from Afghan government forces last Wednesday.

The move left thousands of people stranded on either side and trade was halted.

But some supporters of the Afghan government remain defiant.

Ajmal Omar Shinwari, spokesman for the security forces, said pro-government fighters conducted 244 operations and killed 967 enemy fighters, including key commanders.

“We have recaptured 24 districts. Our goal is to retake all the territories. We are ready to defend our country,” he said.

The Taliban are believed to control about half of the more 400 districts in Afghanistan, as well as several border crossings

It’s easy to view the American-led war in Afghanistan as a disaster. Twenty years after US and Nato forces arrived to end years of harsh Taliban rule while vanquishing Al Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden, the Taliban is retaking great swathes of territory as US forces depart and the country tumbles toward chaos.

Observers foresee another civil war or Taliban takeover, while the militant group has banned smoking and prohibited men from shaving in some areas it controls, and the US’s post-9/11 president, George W Bush, has emerged to denounce Taliban brutality, making the past two decades seem like a mirage.

But now here comes Turkey, arriving to hold the line to supposedly save the republic by taking over security at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, as first reported last month by The National.

The deal is not yet final, but US and Nato officials have confirmed their interest in Turkish forces taking control of a crucial symbol and a logistics, economic and military hub. US-Turkey talks last week are said to have made real progress.

The thinking is that as fellow Muslims – particularly Muslims deployed by a state run by the fellow Islamist Justice and Development Party – Turkish troops would be much less likely to come under assault from the Taliban. Indeed, Turkey had been positioned to serve as mediator for peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, until President Joe Biden announced the US withdrawal and the talks fell through.

But Afghan extremists have for decades shown few qualms about attacking their Muslim brethren, and last week the Taliban vowed to “take a stand against” Turkish forces if they remain in Afghanistan, urging Ankara to reverse its decision on Kabul airport. A Turkish security official dismissed these as “symbolic statements” from the Taliban and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to be a good Nato soldier.

Turkey has no combat troops in Afghanistan, but has supported US and Nato operations there since 2002. Turkish forces have assisted in the training of Afghan military officers, instructors and commando units, and a Turkish contingent leads the multinational force that trains and assists Afghan military divisions in Kabul.

In addition, Ankara has developed close defence ties with neighbouring Pakistan, including a handful of joint military programmes, and last October signed a defence deal with another Afghan neighbour, Uzbekistan, that includes industrial co-operation and joint training.

In taking over Kabul airport security, the Erdogan government may not be going as far out of its comfort zone as some might think. Let’s not forget, the Turkish military has proven itself time and again on regional battlefields in the past few years.

In early 2020, Ankara helped hold off a massive Russian-backed Syrian assault on Idlib province. Then Turkish forces played a key role in halting the Libyan National Army’s advance on Tripoli. And finally Turkey’s advanced drones and military advisers were said to have been crucial in last year’s Azeri victory in Nagorno-Karabakh.

These successes, along with its robust defence industry, relatively reliable proxies and greater risk tolerance, have “enabled Turkey to exercise along and near its periphery what amounts to a geopolitical veto”, said retired US military officer and State Department adviser Rich Outzen.

Might that veto extend all the way to Afghanistan and the edge of South Asia? We may soon find out. The Taliban would represent Turkey’s greatest foe thus far. The extremist group still seeks to establish an Islamic state, but it has taken on more of a pan-Afghan appearance and de-emphasised ties with Al Qaeda and ISIS. Since being ousted in 2001, the Taliban has reportedly gained some support among the country’s Hazara, Tajik and Uzbek minorities.

The Taliban now claims to control 85 per cent of Afghan territory, though the Afghan government and most analysts dispute this figure. The group has yet to take a provincial capital, but it has captured several key border crossings in recent weeks, from Islam Qala in Herat province to Spin Boldak in south-eastern Kandahar.

Last month, US intelligence estimated that the Afghan government could collapse in the face of the Taliban assault as quickly as six months after the US pullout. That would mean troops representing an Islamist-run Turkish state could face a showdown with the militant Islamist Taliban as early as February.

Several thousand Turkish troops may be required to secure Kabul airport. Already, some 600 Turkish troops are stationed in Afghanistan and in January, the Turkish army took the lead on a key Nato readiness task force, placing thousands of soldiers on standby, ready to deploy at a moment’s notice. Turkey maintains military bases in Azerbaijan and Qatar, which could provide rapid support, and Ankara could further strengthen its military presence by importing some of the thousands of Syrian mercenaries it reportedly deployed in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Still, the 60,000-strong Taliban has of late been shredding the 300,000-troop, Nato-trained Afghan army. Retired Turkish ambassador Faruk Logoglu warned of “dire consequences” for Turkish forces facing a Taliban assault in Afghanistan. Yet Mr Erdogan may feel he has little choice.

Since Ankara’s 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 missile defences against the wishes of the US and Nato, the Turkish state has been seen as deeply problematic by fellow coalition members.

Thus Mr Erdogan’s Kabul airport commitment is likely less about Afghanistan and the Taliban than it is about finding a way to end US sanctions on the S-400s and return to the good graces of its western partners.

This is not unreasonable, as Washington wants to get out of the nation-building business in the Middle East and Eurasia.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is in talks with several Central Asian republics about stationing a significant US contingent at one or more of their military bases, to be able to respond to a possible crisis in Afghanistan. And the US needs to keep Kabul airport secure to enable limited diplomatic, military and intelligence operations.

Mr Erdogan has said the Turkish mission expects military, financial and logistical support from the US, as well as the end of the S-400 dispute. Along with intelligence operatives, some 1,000 US troops might remain in Afghanistan after its withdrawal is complete in September: 650 to protect diplomats and a few hundred more to oversee the Kabul airport transition.

Might Turkish forces draw any regional backing? Russia may not side with Ankara in a Turkey-Taliban tussle, but China (seeking stability for Belt and Road Initiative), India (as always, aiming to counter Pakistan) and Iran (no more refugees) could back Turkey.

Yet, at least until a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is imminent, Ankara should expect minimal military support from western and regional powers. This is pretty much an ideal scenario for Mr Erdogan, who often speaks of reviving the Ottoman era and building an empire capable of shaping the region. He may soon face his greatest test in Afghanistan, the Graveyard of Empires.

Ankara was to mediate peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government – until Biden’s announcement