Why a new Baghdad government could take months to form

It could take months to form a new Iraqi government, even though back-room deals were being made before a vote was cast in this week’s elections.

Populist Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr’s bloc gained the largest share of the vote, winning more than 70 seats, according to preliminary results.

The bloc is expected to hold major influence over Iraq’s direction and relationship with Iran and the West.

Mr Al Sadr’s party beat candidates from paramilitary leader Hadi Al Amiri’s Iran-backed Fatah Alliance, which along with other Shiite groups, has contested the results.

It is not clear how many seats the Fatah Alliance has lost out of the 48 they held after the 2018 election.

The period that follows the results is a crucial time for political parties to try to secure key ministries for their candidates.

“There will be an appeal process by the big losers and then we move to the selection of the Speaker, president and prime minister as a package deal,” Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told The National.

“Some Cabinet roles will be excluded from the party points system [including the prime minister role] and those excluded roles will be left to the prime minister to fill.

“Other ministries will be shared out using the points system.”

Under Iraqi legislation, the party that wins the most seats chooses the country’s next prime minister, but it is unlikely that any coalition will secure a clear majority.

In that case, lengthy negotiations will be required to select a consensus prime minister and agree on a new coalition government.

Negotiations over senior positions have already started, said Renad Mansour, a research fellow and director of the Iraq Initiative at London’s Chatham House.

“Even though there were elections, and they had some kind of measure that influences government formation, the government formation had already begun before the first vote has been cast,” he said.

There will now be a period in which the public, candidates and political parties can contest the results and request manual recounts, said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi fellow at the Century Foundation think tank.

The country’s electoral commission has one month to certify the results, he said.

“Once that’s done [the commission] will present the results to the supreme court to certify and then within 15 days the next parliament is supposed to meet to choose its Speaker,” he said.

He said the process would take some time. Some experts predict it could take at least six months until a new government is formed.

Although Mr Al Sadr’s gains were not a surprise, the margin was larger than predicted and the collapse in support for Fatah shocked many, said Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Iraq.

“We will see some contestation of the election results,” he said.

“We have already seen that from Shiite parties. They have had a meeting to come up with a united front in terms of how they should deal with the situation.”

The outcome of the elections will make “this process a little longer because we are in a period that establishes what the smaller blocs actually look like,” she said.

“When we have a clear picture, the real negotiations over various ministries will begin.”