A YEAR ON, FEAR OF TIGRAY WAR ESCALATION REMAINS
▶ Region’s leaders threaten Abiy Ahmed with a march on Ethiopian capital
As the bloody conflict in Ethiopia’s northernmost Tigray region reaches a grim anniversary, the war shows no sign of slowing.
After reportedly capturing two strategic cities along a motorway to the capital this week, Tigrayan forces said they were marching on the capital Addis Ababa to remove the government.
On Tuesday, Ethiopia declared a nationwide state of emergency and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for all citizens to stop what they were doing and take up any weapon they had.
The government has promised to fight to the end.
“The pit which is dug will be very deep,” Mr Abiy told supporters at the military’s headquarters in Addis Ababa on Wednesday.
“It will be where the enemy is buried, not where Ethiopia disintegrates. We will bury this enemy with our blood and bones and make the glory of Ethiopia high again.”
Calls for a ceasefire by the US and international groups have gone unheeded.
The military commander of the Tigray Defence Force, Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae, this week said there would not be any negotiations.
“The war is at its very end,” Gen Tsadkan said.
“We have been expressing our consent for peaceful negotiation several times. But from now on with who are we going to negotiate for ceasefire? The war itself is ending. After all, Abiy’s regime is a war criminal responsible for crimes committed on Tigray.”
The conflict began on November 3 last year, when Mr Abiy and allied Eritrean troops and regional forces from the Amhara region launched a military offensive to crush the regional government of Tigray.
The federal government accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, who run the region, of attacking a military base.
Almost two million people have fled their homes over the past year, and thousands have been killed.
With aid corridors and all basic services blocked to the war-ravaged region, more than 400,000 people in Tigray are facing famine and 1.8 million are on the brink, the UN said.
Government forces occupied the Tigray region for seven months since early December.
But in a major turnaround on June 28, Tigray’s forces recaptured the regional capital, Mekelle and liberated much of the region from government forces.
Reports suggest that acts of ethnic cleansing including massacres, sexual violence and torture of civilians were committed by government forces during the months they occupied the region.
Allegations of atrocities by Tigrayan forces during their advance to Amhara and Afar regions have also been reported.
The US State Department is preparing to expel Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which grants participants in Sub-Saharan Africa duty-free access to the American market for thousands of products.
A joint investigation by the UN and the state-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission found all parties were implicated in atrocities.
But human rights groups, experts and independent journalists have criticised the report, claiming it underplays the atrocities in Tigray.
David Crane, founder of the Global Accountability Network and founding chief prosecutor for the Special Court for Sierra Leone, an international tribunal, told AP the circumstances under which the report was formed were “automatically suspect”.
“What you need when you go into an atrocity zone is a clean slate so outside investigators can look into it neutrally, dispassionately,” Mr Crane said.
On the release of the report on Wednesday, UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet said there was a need for more investigation on the alleged genocide.
Ethiopia’s government had declared a unilateral ceasefire shortly after its troops retreated from the Tigray region in July.
Tigrayan forces did not accept the ceasefire and increased their attacks on neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar.
They claimed the advance was to open an aid corridor and put military pressure on the government to allow humanitarian access to Tigray.
Before the latest military gains, Tigray’s forces expressed willingness for a negotiated ceasefire, which the Ethiopian government rejected despite international pressure and threat of sanctions.
“We will not sit for negotiation with a terrorist group,” Mr Abiy has said.
Since June 29, the Tigray region has been in a siege-like condition, with the UN saying the region has been under a government blockade, and only 10 per cent of humanitarian supplies needed were getting to the region.
In response to the statement, Ethiopia expelled seven higher UN officials, accusing them of meddling in internal affairs.
Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor of conflict studies at the Oslo New University College, said the unilateral ceasefire issued by the Ethiopian government failed because it was not a genuine truce, but a bid for time.
“I believe at this stage the Tigray forces will not accept any kind of negotiation that will secure the continuation of Abiy Ahmed’s regime,” he said.
A unilateral ceasefire by Ethiopia failed because it was not a genuine truce, but a bid for time, analysts say