UK’S RULING PARTY RISKS RECKONING AT BY-ELECTION IN STRONGHOLD
▶ Thomas Harding visits Old Bexley and Sidcup to find out how scandal involving Tory MPs could affect vote
Among the Little Waitrose grocery shops, upmarket restaurants and tree-lined avenues of Old Bexley and Sidcup, there is some unease that the dominance of the UK’s ruling Conservative Party is increasingly vulnerable.
Tory voters in the constituency, in south-east London, say they have been troubled by recent sleaze allegations made against several of the party’s MPs.
One has been accused of voting on bills by proxy while being paid for legal services in the Caribbean, with another resigning after being found guilty of breaching rules on lobbying.
The row has also raised the spectre of the 2009 MPs’ expenses scandal.
The latest furore could have an effect in Old Bexley and Sidcup, when people vote in a by-election on December 2 after the death of incumbent MP James Brokenshire last month at the age of 53.
It is the first of several by-elections that will test the government’s mettle.
Brokenshire built a solid reputation that allowed him to win the seat with a majority of about 19,000 votes in the 2019 general election. But given the extensive media coverage of the Tory sleaze row, the party’s hold appears to be less formidable.
It began with a scandal involving former minister Owen Paterson and the government’s clumsy attempt to undo his 30-day suspension for breaking lobbying regulations by changing the rules.
That was followed by revelations that former attorney general Geoffrey Cox earned about £1 million ($1.3m) while working as a lawyer in the British Virgin Islands. There has been no suggestion he broke any rules.
But the government has been made to look inept and self-serving, raising concerns that the Tories could lose the seat in Old Bexley and Sidcup.
“I think the government has been an honest and said they’ve made a mistake. People are moving past that locally,” Conservative candidate Louie French told The National.
For many voters in the area “Westminster can feel like a faraway place”, he said.
Such optimism may be misplaced and people in Foots Cray, a less-affluent part of the constituency, told The National they might not be so ready to vote Conservative as they did in 2019, when the main issue was Brexit.
“Corruption is not something I would think could happen in Britain,” said kitchen designer Sadia Malik, 42.
“I read a lot of international news and this is something you’d expect to happen in other countries.”
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in the constituency on Friday, emphasising the importance of the seat to his party.
During a visit to a pharmacy in Sidcup, he denied the sleaze scandal would allow the opposition Labour Party take over.
“Louie French is running a great campaign on the big issues that matter to people,” Mr Johnson said.
He said he did not take the issues raised in the row lightly.
“I do not in any way underestimate the vital importance of the transparency of MPs working number one for their constituents and not engaging in paid advocacy,” he said.
“We have got to make sure that the standards committee is allowed to get on and do its work and the Commissioner for Standards gets on and does her work.”
Labour candidate Daniel Francis will probably hope the unsavoury headlines continue in the run up to the election.
“There is a great deal of disillusionment with the Conservatives,” he told The National while canvassing voters in Foots Cray.
“They’ve shown it’s one rule for them, one for everybody else and there’s a great deal of anger, particularly in people who lent their vote to the Conservatives back in 2019. Voters are switching back to us.”
Mr Francis, 44, vowed to fight for every vote and said the Tories had become “very complacent”.
The manager of a fish and chip shop said “the sad thing is that I will probably still vote Tory” in the by-election.
“Labour is still not showing real opposition, there is no real fight on the minimum wage and basically it is two parties in one. They’re just a wasted vote,” he said.
While he suggested there should be consequences for MPs who broke the rules, he said he had sympathy for Mr Johnson.
“Boris Johnson has got many faults, but when you look at the hand he was dealt with on the pandemic, then it has been really tough to make his mark,” he said.
Among people in the banks, shops and businesses in Sidcup, there appears to be little appetite for political change.
“I’ll stick with Boris,” one woman said.
“I think the sleaze needs to be addressed but I don’t want to vote for a different party.
“Boris tried to do his best in the pandemic where he was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t.”
Mr French will hope that sentiment is widely shared by voters and that the sleaze accusations will be largely forgotten about in three weeks.
But Labour and its voters will hope the scandal continues to hold the public’s attention as the vote approaches.
“People are fed up with this government and they won’t be taken for fools,” said Ellie Reeves, Labour MP for Lewisham West and Penge in south London, who was canvassing voters with Mr Francis.
“They know this isn’t right. This isn’t decent. This should not happen in politics.”
Labour is hoping the accusations will persuade voters in Old Bexley and Sidcup that the Conservatives are “just looking out for themselves”.
In June, a by-election was held in Chesham and Amersham, north-west of London, and a 30 per cent swing to the Liberal Democrats overturned the previous Tory majority of 16,000 votes.
If Old Bexley and Sidcup produces a similar result, it will demonstrate Chesham and Amersham was not a one-off and that the Conservatives have serious electoral problems to consider in parts of England.
Those problems could be further exposed in a series of by-elections in England.
A date has not yet been set for a by-election in Southend West following the killing of Conservative MP Sir David Amess last month.
He was stabbed and killed at an event to meet constituents and owing to the circumstances of his death, opposition parties have said they will not stand against the Tory candidate.
In North Shropshire, the resignation of Mr Paterson leaves another constituency in need of an MP.
There is no date yet for the by-election, which will be hotly contested.
He stepped down after the government performed an about-turn, having initially supporting him over a breach of lobbying rules in 2019.
The government successfully ordered its MPs to block a six-week suspension for Mr Paterson, who was censured by a parliamentary watchdog for lobbying on behalf of companies that paid him more than £100,000.
But a backlash against plans to introduce a new standards system prompted the government to backtrack and promise a new vote on Mr Paterson.
He quit and described the past two years as an “indescribable nightmare”.
He said he had been unable to clear his name under the current system.
The pressure of the inquiry, which concluded that he was responsible for an “egregious” breach of the rules, contributed to his wife’s suicide in June last year, he said.
A by-election is also likely to be held in Leicester East after the MP there, Claudia Webbe, was sentenced to 10 weeks in jail, suspended for two years, for threatening to throw acid in the face of one of her partner’s female friends.
Webbe has formally begun her bid to overturn her harassment conviction, but has been warned that her sentence could yet be increased.
The appeal is scheduled to be heard on March 9 and could last up to three days.
A recall petition, which would trigger a by-election if at least 10 per cent of her constituents supported it, would have to wait until the outcome of her appeal is announced.
She sits in the House of Commons as an independent, after being expelled from the Labour Party over the conviction.
There is a great deal of disillusionment with the Conservatives ... it’s own rule for them, one for everybody else DANIEL FRANCIS Labour candidate