COP28 ACTION MAY PREVENT 80% OF HEAT DEATHS IN MIDDLE EAST
▶ Worst consequences of global warming can be stopped with the right measures, study says
As the UAE prepares for the Cop28 meeting in Dubai in November, a report has highlighted an urgent need in the Middle East and North Africa for stronger policies to avoid the worst consequences of global warming.
Published by The Lancet Planetary Health, the report from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) recommends that mitigation and adaptation policies are ratified at the conference and beyond.
Heat-related deaths in the Mena region will be 60 times higher by the end of the century if no climate action is taken, the researchers said.
Their report, titled Current and Future Trends in Heat-Related Mortality in the Mena Region, examined heat-related deaths in 19 countries. The study found that if action is taken to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, more than 80 per cent of heat-related deaths in Mena could be prevented by the end of the century.
It predicted that under current high emissions, 123 people in every 100,000 could die annually by the end of the century from heat-related causes.
During the same period, temperatures are expected to rise to almost 50°C, making some areas uninhabitable and Mena one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world.
The rising temperatures put people with cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney problems, as well as those with diabetes and neurological problems, at greater risk, Shakoor Hajat, a professor of global environmental health and the lead author of the report, said. “Global warming will need to be limited to 2°C to avoid the catastrophic health impacts estimated in our study,” he said.
Researchers from the LSHTM analysed variations in the potential levels of greenhouse gas emissions over time and various socioeconomic scenarios and found that most of the region would experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s.
Mena has been experiencing worsening heat because of the climate crisis, yet the issue remains largely underexplored and little has been done to tackle its effects.
“Even with stronger action, countries in the region need to develop ways other than air conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of extreme heat,” Prof Hajat said.
The report said that although heat-related deaths in Mena today are low (two for every 100,000 people compared to 17 for every 100,000 in western Europe or 10 for every 100,000 in Australasia), a much higher rise in that mortality rate is expected than in other regions.
In the UK, a rise from the current three for every 100,000 to nine for every 100,000 by the 2080s is predicted.
Iran is expected to have the highest annual death rate in Mena (423 for every 100,000), while Palestine, Iraq and Israel
were also predicted to have high rates (186, 169 and 163 per 100,000, respectively).
The UAE and Qatar are expected to have the greatest relative increases in heatrelated deaths, the LSHTM study suggested.
The number of heat-related deaths is also expected to be driven by large population growth, so revised demographic policies are needed, the report said.
“Strengthening health systems and better co-ordination between Mena countries will be key in tackling the health impacts of climate change in the region.
“With Cop28 coming up, discussions are needed to consider how countries in the region can better work together to improve resilience in the face of climate change,” the report said.
Specialists from a public health university in the UK say the November summit in Dubai can take the initiative on climate