Polls predict Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition would lose its majority in new Israeli election

Three new surveys in Israel show that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition would lose its majority if elections took place today.

The polls showed a surge in support for the opposition National Unity party led by former defence minister Benny Gantz.

According to a poll released by Channel 13, Mr Netanyahu’s five-month-old coalition would win as few as 49 seats, significantly lower than its current 64.

In contrast, National Unity would win 30 seats, more than double its current tally of 12.

A survey by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan said the coalition would win only 51 seats – 10 short of a majority in the 120-member Knesset – while right-wing outlet Channel 14’s poll said it would win 58.

The findings reflect opposition to the government’s judicial reform plan that would weaken the Supreme Court and give the government more say in the appointment of legal officials.

Protests against the legislation have drawn tens of thousands, although about 200,000 turned out to support the changes last week.

All three polls found that Labour would not pass the threshold of 3.25 per cent of the vote to get a seat. However, Meretz, a party farther to the left which failed to pass the threshold in 2022, would win up to five seats.

Mr Netanyahu returned to power in December at the head of coalition of his Likud party and right-wing allies, following five elections in three years.

Israel’s next elections are scheduled for 2026, but the government will fall by the end of the month if it fails to pass the state budget, a process made harder by a number of demands from coalition parties and reduced tax revenue.

Israel’s parliament began its summer session on Sunday after a month-long recess in which negotiations were held on a judicial reform compromise.